bayesRatings

Royals at Nationals

MLB · Monday, Jun 15 · 5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final KC 3 – WSH 7
← MLB / Jun 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC000120000380
WSH00205000780
Team box
KC·WSH
8
hits
8
0
home runs
1
3
walks
4
10
strikeouts
3
127
pitches thrown
144
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dylan CrewsWSH1-4113
Maikel GarciaKC1-4002
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH1-4102
Curtis MeadWSH1-4002
Nick LoftinKC2-3000
Carter JensenKC1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Mitch Spence (L)KC4.07611
Andrew AlvarezWSH4.05115
Brad Lord (W)WSH3.02212

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +4
KC +4
123456789
largest lead: WSH 4 · KC 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 48%, WSH 52% · Updated Jun 15

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
KC 5.3 – 5.1 WSH
Expected total
10.4
RoyalsThe matchupNationals
+109Our fair odds−109
5.3Expected runs5.1
−0.08Power rating−0.07
4.0Runs / game5.4
4.7Allowed / game5.3
8.1Hits / game8.5
0.89Home runs / game1.31
3.4Walks drawn / game3.4
29−43Season record37−35
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · WSH chance
Our model fair47.9%52.1%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+10948%+11446.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals−10952%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
KCKansas City Royals−0.2our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.4
Over10.4our total————
Under10.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Kansas City Royals by 15 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 14 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 10%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 15%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%
← KC wins byWSH wins by →
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more39%
Kansas City Royals wins by 3 or more30%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.561%
Total over 10.545%
Total over 12.530%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCMitch Spence RP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 11.30 ERA, 9 Kstarted
WSHAndrew Alvarez SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 2.08 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·WSH
Jun 14 vs HOU
last game
Jun 14 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 72+ games
KC·WSH
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
4.0
runs / game
5.4
4.7
runs allowed / game
5.3
29−43
season record
37−35
17−21
home record
14−21
12−22
away record
23−14
W1
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.1
hits / game
8.5
0.89
home runs / game
1.31
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.44
errors / game
0.85

Rating Trend

KC · WSH · 82 days
Kansas City RoyalsWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · WSH 3−6
Aug 13, 2025at KCWSH 8 − 7
Aug 12, 2025at KCKC 8 − 5
Aug 11, 2025at KCKC 7 − 4
Sep 26, 2024at WSHKC 7 − 4
Sep 25, 2024at WSHKC 3 − 0
Sep 24, 2024at WSHKC 1 − 0
May 28, 2023at KCKC 3 − 2
May 27, 2023at KCWSH 4 − 2
May 26, 2023at KCWSH 12 − 10

KC · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 14vs HOU4 − 0W
Jun 13vs HOU7 − 8L
Jun 12vs HOU8 − 10L
Jun 11vs TEX2 − 4L
Jun 10vs TEX4 − 6L
Jun 9vs TEX5 − 3W
Jun 7at MIN6 − 5W
Jun 6at MIN3 − 2W
Jun 5at MIN3 − 5L
Jun 4at MIN8 − 6W

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jun 14vs SEA10 − 1W
Jun 13vs SEA8 − 3W
Jun 12vs SEA2 − 10L
Jun 10at SF10 − 11L
Jun 9at SF6 − 3W
Jun 8at SF4 − 3W
Jun 7at ARI1 − 5L
Jun 6at ARI6 − 1W
Jun 5at ARI14 − 1W
Jun 3vs MIA1 − 4L