bayesRatings

Nationals at Rays

MLB · Friday, Jun 19 · 6:10 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final WSH 2 – TB 5
← MLB / Jun 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH011000000260
TB003100015101
Team box
WSH·TB
6
hits
10
2
home runs
2
0
walks
1
7
strikeouts
3
108
pitches thrown
126
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jonathan ArandaTB1-4113
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH2-3111
Jonny DeLucaTB1-4111
CJ AbramsWSH1-4111
Yandy DiazTB2-4100
Taylor WallsTB1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
PJ PoulinWSH2.01001
Miles Mikolas (L)WSH6.09512
Griffin Jax (W)TB5.04205
Bryan Baker (S)TB1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
WSH +3
123456789
largest lead: TB 3 · WSH 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 46%, TB 54% · Updated Jun 19

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 4.8 – 4.5 WSH
Expected total
9.3
NationalsThe matchupRays
+118Our fair odds−118
4.5Expected runs4.8
−0.06Power rating+0.04
5.4Runs / game4.4
5.2Allowed / game4.4
8.5Hits / game8.5
1.28Home runs / game0.82
3.4Walks drawn / game3.7
39−36Season record41−30
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · TB chance
Our model fair45.8%54.2%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+11846%+13442.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−11854%−16161.7%———
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington Nationals+0.3our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 12%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 16%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more39%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more29%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHPJ Poulin RP · last 3 starts: 4.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 1 Kstarted
TBGriffin Jax SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 3.86 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·TB
Jun 17 vs KC
last game
Jun 17 at LAD
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 71+ games
WSH·TB
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
5.4
runs / game
4.4
5.2
runs allowed / game
4.4
39−36
season record
41−30
16−22
home record
24−9
23−14
away record
17−21
L1
streak
L3
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.5
hits / game
8.5
1.28
home runs / game
0.82
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.83
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

WSH · TB · 86 days
Washington NationalsTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 8−2
Aug 31, 2025at WSHTB 7 − 4
Aug 30, 2025at WSHTB 4 − 1
Aug 29, 2025at WSHTB 4 − 1
Jun 30, 2024at TBTB 5 − 0
Jun 29, 2024at TBWSH 8 − 1
Jun 28, 2024at TBTB 3 − 1
Apr 5, 2023at WSHTB 7 − 2
Apr 4, 2023at WSHTB 10 − 6
Apr 3, 2023at WSHTB 6 − 2
Jun 30, 2021at WSHWSH 15 − 6

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jun 17vs KC2 − 6L
Jun 16vs KC6 − 4W
Jun 15vs KC7 − 3W
Jun 14vs SEA10 − 1W
Jun 13vs SEA8 − 3W
Jun 12vs SEA2 − 10L
Jun 10at SF10 − 11L
Jun 9at SF6 − 3W
Jun 8at SF4 − 3W
Jun 7at ARI1 − 5L

TB · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Jun 17at LAD4 − 5L
Jun 16at LAD0 − 1L
Jun 15at LAD3 − 4L
Jun 14at LAA8 − 3W
Jun 13at LAA0 − 8L
Jun 12at LAA3 − 4L
Jun 10vs BOS7 − 5W
Jun 9vs BOS4 − 3W
Jun 8vs BOS3 − 1W
Jun 7at MIA1 − 4L