bayesRatings

Royals at Nationals

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 17 · 12:05 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final KC 6 – WSH 2
← MLB / Jun 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC1120020006130
WSH000002000260
Team box
KC·WSH
13
hits
6
4
home runs
0
4
walks
1
3
strikeouts
6
142
pitches thrown
169
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Carter JensenKC4-4111
John RaveKC2-4211
Lane ThomasKC1-4111
Michael MasseyKC1-4111
Isaac CollinsKC2-4101
Bobby Witt Jr.KC1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Luinder Avila (W)KC5.23115
Zack Littell (L)WSH5.07422

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +6
KC +6
123456789
largest lead: WSH 0 · KC 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 47%, WSH 53% · Updated Jun 17

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
KC 5.2 – 5.2 WSH
Expected total
10.4
RoyalsThe matchupNationals
+113Our fair odds−113
5.2Expected runs5.2
−0.10Power rating−0.06
4.0Runs / game5.5
4.7Allowed / game5.2
8.1Hits / game8.5
0.88Home runs / game1.30
3.4Walks drawn / game3.5
29−45Season record39−35
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · WSH chance
Our model fair47.0%53.0%
Kalshi47.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+11347%+10947.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals−11353%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
KCKansas City Royals−0.1our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.4
Over10.4our total————
Under10.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Kansas City Royals by 14 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 10%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 15%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%
← KC wins byWSH wins by →
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more39%
Kansas City Royals wins by 3 or more30%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.561%
Total over 10.545%
Total over 12.530%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCLuinder Avila SP · last 3 starts: 10.2 IP, 8.44 ERA, 8 Kstarted
WSHZack Littell SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 5.68 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·WSH
Jun 16 at WSH
last game
Jun 16 vs KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 74+ games
KC·WSH
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.0
runs / game
5.5
4.7
runs allowed / game
5.2
29−45
season record
39−35
17−21
home record
16−21
12−24
away record
23−14
L2
streak
W4
4−6
last 10
7−3
8.1
hits / game
8.5
0.88
home runs / game
1.30
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.43
errors / game
0.84

Rating Trend

KC · WSH · 84 days
Kansas City RoyalsWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 4−6
Jun 16at WSHWSH 6 − 4
Jun 15at WSHWSH 7 − 3
Aug 13, 2025at KCWSH 8 − 7
Aug 12, 2025at KCKC 8 − 5
Aug 11, 2025at KCKC 7 − 4
Sep 26, 2024at WSHKC 7 − 4
Sep 25, 2024at WSHKC 3 − 0
Sep 24, 2024at WSHKC 1 − 0
May 28, 2023at KCKC 3 − 2
May 27, 2023at KCWSH 4 − 2

KC · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jun 16at WSH4 − 6L
Jun 15at WSH3 − 7L
Jun 14vs HOU4 − 0W
Jun 13vs HOU7 − 8L
Jun 12vs HOU8 − 10L
Jun 11vs TEX2 − 4L
Jun 10vs TEX4 − 6L
Jun 9vs TEX5 − 3W
Jun 7at MIN6 − 5W
Jun 6at MIN3 − 2W

WSH · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Jun 16vs KC6 − 4W
Jun 15vs KC7 − 3W
Jun 14vs SEA10 − 1W
Jun 13vs SEA8 − 3W
Jun 12vs SEA2 − 10L
Jun 10at SF10 − 11L
Jun 9at SF6 − 3W
Jun 8at SF4 − 3W
Jun 7at ARI1 − 5L
Jun 6at ARI6 − 1W