bayesRatings

Phillies at Nationals

MLB · Monday, Jun 22 · 5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final PHI 1 – WSH 4
← MLB / Jun 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI000000100151
WSH110000204122
Team box
PHI·WSH
5
hits
12
1
home runs
2
0
walks
1
12
strikeouts
8
137
pitches thrown
120
1
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Curtis MeadWSH1-5112
Brandon MarshPHI1-3111
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH1-4111
Dylan CrewsWSH2-5001
Bryce HarperPHI2-4000
Keibert RuizWSH2-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tim Mayza (L)PHI1.02102
Foster Griffin (W)WSH7.14109
Clayton Beeter (S)WSH1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +3
PHI +3
123456789
largest lead: WSH 3 · PHI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 53%, WSH 47% · Updated Jun 22

Expected margin
PHI by 0.9
Expected score
PHI 5.7 – 4.8 WSH
Expected total
10.5
PhilliesThe matchupNationals
−111Our fair odds+111
5.7Expected runs4.8
+0.11Power rating−0.07
4.3Runs / game5.3
4.3Allowed / game5.2
7.8Hits / game8.4
1.29Home runs / game1.29
2.9Walks drawn / game3.3
42−35Season record40−38
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · WSH chance
Our model fair52.6%47.4%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−11153%+10149.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals+11147%−12154.7%———
SpreadPHI by 0.9
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.9our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.5
Over10.5our total————
Under10.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 0.9 expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 16 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 15 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 9%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 10%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 15%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 8%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byWSH wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more45%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more35%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.562%
Total over 10.545%
Total over 12.531%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHITim Mayza RP · last 1 start: 2.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 2 Kstarted
WSHFoster Griffin SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 1.59 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·WSH
Jun 21 vs NYM
last game
Jun 21 at TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 77+ games
PHI·WSH
+0.11
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
4.3
runs / game
5.3
4.3
runs allowed / game
5.2
42−35
season record
40−38
23−19
home record
16−22
19−16
away record
24−16
W2
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
5−5
7.8
hits / game
8.4
1.29
home runs / game
1.29
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.47
errors / game
0.79

Rating Trend

PHI · WSH · 89 days
Philadelphia PhilliesWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 4−6
Apr 1at PHIPHI 6 − 5
Mar 31at PHIPHI 3 − 2
Mar 30at PHIWSH 13 − 2
Aug 24, 2025at PHIPHI 3 − 2
Aug 23, 2025at PHIPHI 6 − 4
Aug 22, 2025at PHIWSH 5 − 4
Aug 17, 2025at WSHPHI 11 − 9
Aug 16, 2025at WSHWSH 2 − 0
Aug 15, 2025at WSHPHI 6 − 2
Aug 14, 2025at WSHWSH 3 − 2

PHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jun 21vs NYM6 − 2W
Jun 20vs NYM15 − 3W
Jun 18vs NYM4 − 6L
Jun 17vs MIA4 − 12L
Jun 16vs MIA8 − 2W
Jun 15vs MIA7 − 0W
Jun 14at MIL0 − 4L
Jun 13at MIL9 − 8W
Jun 12at MIL0 − 6L
Jun 10at TOR7 − 4W

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jun 21at TB3 − 4L
Jun 20at TB4 − 3W
Jun 19at TB2 − 5L
Jun 17vs KC2 − 6L
Jun 16vs KC6 − 4W
Jun 15vs KC7 − 3W
Jun 14vs SEA10 − 1W
Jun 13vs SEA8 − 3W
Jun 12vs SEA2 − 10L
Jun 10at SF10 − 11L