bayesRatings

Cubs at Mets

MLB · Thursday, Jun 25 · 6:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final CHC 4 – NYM 3
← MLB / Jun 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
CHC0000030001461
NYM0000021000392
Team box
CHC·NYM
6
hits
9
0
home runs
2
2
walks
6
12
strikeouts
8
169
pitches thrown
163
1
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Eric WagamanNYM1-3112
Jared YoungNYM1-1111
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC2-5001
Michael ConfortoCHC1-4101
Alex BregmanCHC1-4101
Ian HappCHC1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Matthew BoydCHC4.24044
Jacob Webb (W)CHC1.00010
Trent Thornton (S)CHC1.00000
Freddy PeraltaNYM5.25015
Brooks Raley (L)NYM1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +3
CHC +3
12345678910
largest lead: NYM 0 · CHC 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 53%, NYM 47% · Updated Jun 25

Expected margin
CHC by 0.8
Expected score
CHC 5.0 – 4.1 NYM
Expected total
9.1
CubsThe matchupMets
−112Our fair odds+112
5.0Expected runs4.1
+0.11Power rating−0.07
4.9Runs / game4.1
4.5Allowed / game4.6
8.3Hits / game7.7
1.19Home runs / game1.12
4.4Walks drawn / game2.9
43−37Season record34−46
7−3Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · NYM chance
Our model fair52.8%47.2%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs−11253%−11252.7%———
NYMNew York Mets+11247%−10751.8%———
SpreadCHC by 0.8
CHCChicago Cubs−0.8our margin————
NYMNew York Mets+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.8 expected
Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 11%New York Mets by 1 run: 16%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 3 runs: 6%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 5 runs: 3%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byNYM wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more43%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more33%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCMatthew Boyd SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 5.52 ERA, 14 Kstarted
NYMFreddy Peralta SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 11.20 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·NYM
Jun 24 at NYM
last game
Jun 24 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 80+ games
CHC·NYM
+0.11
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
4.9
runs / game
4.1
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.6
43−37
season record
34−46
23−17
home record
18−21
20−20
away record
16−25
W3
streak
L5
7−3
last 10
3−7
8.3
hits / game
7.7
1.19
home runs / game
1.12
4.4
walks drawn / game
2.9
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.39
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

CHC · NYM · 92 days
Chicago CubsNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 3−7
Jun 24at NYMCHC 10 − 5
Jun 24at NYMCHC 10 − 3
Jun 23at NYMCHC 9 − 6
Apr 19at CHCCHC 2 − 1
Apr 18at CHCCHC 4 − 2
Apr 17at CHCCHC 12 − 4
Sep 25, 2025at CHCNYM 8 − 5
Sep 24, 2025at CHCCHC 10 − 3
Sep 23, 2025at CHCNYM 9 − 7
May 11, 2025at NYMNYM 6 − 2

CHC · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Jun 24at NYM10 − 5W
Jun 24at NYM10 − 3W
Jun 23at NYM9 − 6W
Jun 20vs TOR6 − 8L
Jun 19vs TOR16 − 2W
Jun 17vs COL8 − 6W
Jun 16vs COL2 − 5L
Jun 15vs COL5 − 4W
Jun 14at SF1 − 5L
Jun 13at SF6 − 1W

NYM · Last 10

3−7 · streak L5
Jun 24vs CHC5 − 10L
Jun 24vs CHC3 − 10L
Jun 23vs CHC6 − 9L
Jun 21at PHI2 − 6L
Jun 20at PHI3 − 15L
Jun 18at PHI6 − 4W
Jun 17at CIN9 − 1W
Jun 16at CIN3 − 5L
Jun 15at CIN0 − 12L
Jun 14vs ATL8 − 1W