bayesRatings

Phillies at Mets

MLB · Friday, Jun 26 · 6:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final PHI 2 – NYM 1
← MLB / Jun 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI100000100291
NYM000100000151
Team box
PHI·NYM
9
hits
5
0
home runs
0
2
walks
1
9
strikeouts
7
126
pitches thrown
117
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bryce HarperPHI3-4001
Trea TurnerPHI2-4101
Jared YoungNYM1-4001
Francisco LindorNYM1-4000
Bo BichetteNYM1-4100
Carson BengeNYM1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Zack Wheeler (W)PHI7.04115
Jhoan Duran (S)PHI1.01001
Zac ThorntonNYM6.05117
Huascar Brazoban (L)NYM1.02111

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +3
PHI +3
123456789
largest lead: NYM 0 · PHI 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 53%, NYM 47% · Updated Jun 26

Expected margin
PHI by 0.6
Expected score
PHI 4.8 – 4.2 NYM
Expected total
8.9
PhilliesThe matchupMets
−114Our fair odds+114
4.8Expected runs4.2
+0.13Power rating−0.08
4.4Runs / game4.0
4.4Allowed / game4.6
7.9Hits / game7.8
1.32Home runs / game1.14
2.9Walks drawn / game3.0
45−36Season record34−47
7−3Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · NYM chance
Our model fair53.4%46.6%
Kalshi62.7%41.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−11453%−16862.7%———
NYMNew York Mets+11447%+14041.7%———
SpreadPHI by 0.6
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.6our margin————
NYMNew York Mets+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 0.6 expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 12%New York Mets by 1 run: 16%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 3 runs: 6%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 5 runs: 3%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byNYM wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more41%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more31%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIZack Wheeler SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 1.53 ERA, 21 Kstarted
NYMZac Thornton SP · last 1 start: 4.1 IP, 8.31 ERA, 3 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·NYM
Jun 25 at WSH
last game
Jun 25 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 81+ games
PHI·NYM
+0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.4
runs / game
4.0
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.6
45−36
season record
34−47
23−19
home record
18−22
22−17
away record
16−25
W3
streak
L6
7−3
last 10
2−8
7.9
hits / game
7.8
1.32
home runs / game
1.14
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
9.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.49
errors / game
0.65

Rating Trend

PHI · NYM · 93 days
Philadelphia PhilliesNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 4−6
Jun 21at PHIPHI 6 − 2
Jun 20at PHIPHI 15 − 3
Jun 18at PHINYM 6 − 4
Sep 11, 2025at PHIPHI 6 − 4
Sep 10, 2025at PHIPHI 11 − 3
Sep 9, 2025at PHIPHI 9 − 3
Sep 8, 2025at PHIPHI 1 − 0
Aug 27, 2025at NYMNYM 6 − 0
Aug 26, 2025at NYMNYM 6 − 5
Aug 25, 2025at NYMNYM 13 − 3

PHI · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Jun 25at WSH10 − 5W
Jun 24at WSH5 − 4W
Jun 23at WSH14 − 9W
Jun 22at WSH1 − 4L
Jun 21vs NYM6 − 2W
Jun 20vs NYM15 − 3W
Jun 18vs NYM4 − 6L
Jun 17vs MIA4 − 12L
Jun 16vs MIA8 − 2W
Jun 15vs MIA7 − 0W

NYM · Last 10

2−8 · streak L6
Jun 25vs CHC3 − 4L
Jun 24vs CHC5 − 10L
Jun 24vs CHC3 − 10L
Jun 23vs CHC6 − 9L
Jun 21at PHI2 − 6L
Jun 20at PHI3 − 15L
Jun 18at PHI6 − 4W
Jun 17at CIN9 − 1W
Jun 16at CIN3 − 5L
Jun 15at CIN0 − 12L