bayesRatings

Phillies at Nationals

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 24 · 5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final PHI 5 – WSH 4
← MLB / Jun 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI000300002580
WSH110002000461
Team box
PHI·WSH
8
hits
6
1
home runs
3
2
walks
3
6
strikeouts
10
157
pitches thrown
162
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Derek HillPHI1-1112
Curtis MeadWSH1-2112
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH1-3111
Jorbit VivasWSH1-2111
Brandon MarshPHI3-4100
Trea TurnerPHI2-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Aaron NolaPHI5.03225
Seth Johnson (W)PHI1.00000
Jhoan Duran (S)PHI1.00003
Carson PalmquistWSH3.12113
Richard Lovelady (L)WSH0.11100

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +3
PHI +3
123456789
largest lead: WSH 2 · PHI 1lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 53%, WSH 47% · Updated Jun 24

Expected margin
PHI by 1.0
Expected score
PHI 5.8 – 4.8 WSH
Expected total
10.7
PhilliesThe matchupNationals
−112Our fair odds+112
5.8Expected runs4.8
+0.11Power rating−0.07
4.4Runs / game5.4
4.4Allowed / game5.2
7.9Hits / game8.5
1.30Home runs / game1.31
2.9Walks drawn / game3.3
43−36Season record41−39
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · WSH chance
Our model fair52.8%47.2%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−11253%−12655.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals+11247%+10548.7%———
SpreadPHI by 1.0
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−1our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.7
Over10.7our total————
Under10.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 1.0 expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 16 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 15 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 9%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 15%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 8%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byWSH wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more46%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more36%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.563%
Total over 10.547%
Total over 12.532%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIAaron Nola SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 6.43 ERA, 13 Kstarted
WSHCarson Palmquist RP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 6.39 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·WSH
Jun 23 at WSH
last game
Jun 23 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 79+ games
PHI·WSH
+0.11
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
4.4
runs / game
5.4
4.4
runs allowed / game
5.2
43−36
season record
41−39
23−19
home record
17−23
20−17
away record
24−16
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
6−4
7.9
hits / game
8.5
1.30
home runs / game
1.31
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
9.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.48
errors / game
0.81

Rating Trend

PHI · WSH · 91 days
Philadelphia PhilliesWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 4−6
Jun 23at WSHPHI 14 − 9
Jun 22at WSHWSH 4 − 1
Apr 1at PHIPHI 6 − 5
Mar 31at PHIPHI 3 − 2
Mar 30at PHIWSH 13 − 2
Aug 24, 2025at PHIPHI 3 − 2
Aug 23, 2025at PHIPHI 6 − 4
Aug 22, 2025at PHIWSH 5 − 4
Aug 17, 2025at WSHPHI 11 − 9
Aug 16, 2025at WSHWSH 2 − 0

PHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jun 23at WSH14 − 9W
Jun 22at WSH1 − 4L
Jun 21vs NYM6 − 2W
Jun 20vs NYM15 − 3W
Jun 18vs NYM4 − 6L
Jun 17vs MIA4 − 12L
Jun 16vs MIA8 − 2W
Jun 15vs MIA7 − 0W
Jun 14at MIL0 − 4L
Jun 13at MIL9 − 8W

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jun 23vs PHI9 − 14L
Jun 22vs PHI4 − 1W
Jun 21at TB3 − 4L
Jun 20at TB4 − 3W
Jun 19at TB2 − 5L
Jun 17vs KC2 − 6L
Jun 16vs KC6 − 4W
Jun 15vs KC7 − 3W
Jun 14vs SEA10 − 1W
Jun 13vs SEA8 − 3W