bayesRatings

Mets at Blue Jays

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 1 · 2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final NYM 3 – TOR 9
← MLB / Jul 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM000000021350
TOR104000409120
Team box
NYM·TOR
5
hits
12
2
home runs
2
2
walks
5
11
strikeouts
7
151
pitches thrown
133
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Carson BengeNYM2-4112
Myles StrawTOR1-1113
Sean KeysTOR1-4113
Francisco LindorNYM1-3111
Ernie ClementTOR2-4101
Kazuma OkamotoTOR2-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Freddy Peralta (L)NYM4.07534
Braydon FisherTOR1.00011
Spencer Miles (W)TOR3.01015
Patrick Corbin (S)TOR5.04305

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +9
NYM +9
123456789
largest lead: TOR 9 · NYM 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 47%, TOR 53% · Updated Jul 1

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 4.5 – 4.2 NYM
Expected total
8.7
MetsThe matchupBlue Jays
+115Our fair odds−115
4.2Expected runs4.5
−0.07Power rating+0.01
4.0Runs / game4.0
4.5Allowed / game4.4
7.7Hits / game8.3
1.12Home runs / game1.00
3.0Walks drawn / game2.8
36−50Season record40−46
2−8Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · TOR chance
Our model fair46.5%53.5%
Kalshi50.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+11547%−10350.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−11553%−12154.7%———
Spreadabout even
NYMNew York Mets+0.3our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 1 run: 13%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 15%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more38%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more28%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMFreddy Peralta SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 7.42 ERA, 9 Kstarted
TORBraydon Fisher RP · last 3 starts: 3.1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 3 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·TOR
Jun 30 at TOR
last game
Jun 30 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
8
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
10th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 86+ games
NYM·TOR
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
4.0
runs / game
4.0
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.4
36−50
season record
40−46
19−24
home record
23−25
17−26
away record
17−21
W1
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
3−7
7.7
hits / game
8.3
1.12
home runs / game
1.00
3.0
walks drawn / game
2.8
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.5
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.65
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

NYM · TOR · 98 days
New York MetsToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 4−6
Jun 30at TORNYM 3 − 0
Jun 29at TORTOR 2 − 1
Apr 6, 2025at NYMNYM 2 − 1
Apr 5, 2025at NYMNYM 3 − 2
Apr 4, 2025at NYMNYM 5 − 0
Sep 11, 2024at TORNYM 6 − 2
Sep 10, 2024at TORTOR 6 − 2
Sep 9, 2024at TORNYM 3 − 2
Jun 4, 2023at NYMTOR 6 − 4
Jun 3, 2023at NYMTOR 2 − 1

NYM · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Jun 30at TOR3 − 0W
Jun 29at TOR1 − 2L
Jun 28vs PHI4 − 5L
Jun 27vs PHI6 − 2W
Jun 26vs PHI1 − 2L
Jun 25vs CHC3 − 4L
Jun 24vs CHC5 − 10L
Jun 24vs CHC3 − 10L
Jun 23vs CHC6 − 9L
Jun 21at PHI2 − 6L

TOR · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Jun 30vs NYM0 − 3L
Jun 29vs NYM2 − 1W
Jun 28vs TEX2 − 3L
Jun 27vs TEX4 − 7L
Jun 26vs TEX4 − 5L
Jun 25vs TEX5 − 6L
Jun 24vs HOU1 − 3L
Jun 23vs HOU7 − 9L
Jun 22vs HOU4 − 2W
Jun 20at CHC8 − 6W