bayesRatings

Marlins at Rockies

MLB · Monday, Jun 29 · 7:40 PM CT · Coors Field · Final MIA 10 – COL 7
← MLB / Jun 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA02004040010130
COL0320001017100
Team box
MIA·COL
13
hits
10
2
home runs
1
4
walks
5
6
strikeouts
5
141
pitches thrown
158
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Javier SanojaMIA3-5103
Griffin ConineMIA1-2213
Hunter GoodmanCOL2-5111
Otto LopezMIA2-5111
Jake McCarthyCOL2-5002
Kyle KarrosCOL2-4102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sandy Alcantara (W)MIA5.27553
Sean SullivanCOL4.26525
Victor Vodnik (L)COL1.12100

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +5
MIA +5
123456789
largest lead: COL 3 · MIA 5lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 60%, COL 40% · Updated Jun 29

Expected margin
MIA by 1.5
Expected score
MIA 6.2 – 4.7 COL
Expected total
10.9
MarlinsThe matchupRockies
−151Our fair odds+151
6.2Expected runs4.7
−0.00Power rating−0.48
4.3Runs / game4.6
4.2Allowed / game5.7
8.1Hits / game8.7
0.87Home runs / game1.10
3.3Walks drawn / game3.1
44−40Season record33−51
8−2Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · COL chance
Our model fair60.1%39.9%
Kalshi61.7%42.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins−15160%−16161.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+15140%+13442.7%———
SpreadMIA by 1.5
MIAMiami Marlins−1.5our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.9
Over10.9our total————
Under10.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Marlins by 1.5 expected
Miami Marlins by 17 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 16 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 15 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 14 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 8%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 11%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 12%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byCOL wins by →
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more49%
Miami Marlins wins by 3 or more40%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.9 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.565%
Total over 10.548%
Total over 12.534%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIASandy Alcantara SP · last 3 starts: 20.2 IP, 2.61 ERA, 17 Kstarted
COLSean Sullivan SP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 8.25 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·COL
Jun 28 at STL
last game
Jun 28 at MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 84+ games
MIA·COL
−0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.48
4.3
runs / game
4.6
4.2
runs allowed / game
5.7
44−40
season record
33−51
28−17
home record
18−22
16−23
away record
15−29
L1
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
5−5
8.1
hits / game
8.7
0.87
home runs / game
1.10
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.9
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.0
0.62
errors / game
0.58

Rating Trend

MIA · COL · 96 days
Miami MarlinsColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 3−7
Mar 29at MIAMIA 4 − 3
Mar 28at MIAMIA 4 − 3
Mar 27at MIAMIA 2 − 1
Sep 18, 2025at COLMIA 9 − 7
Sep 17, 2025at COLMIA 8 − 4
Sep 16, 2025at COLMIA 6 − 5
Jun 4, 2025at MIACOL 3 − 2
Jun 3, 2025at MIACOL 3 − 2
Jun 2, 2025at MIACOL 6 − 4
Aug 29, 2024at COLMIA 12 − 8

MIA · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Jun 28at STL1 − 2L
Jun 27at STL5 − 1W
Jun 26at STL4 − 0W
Jun 24vs TEX4 − 2W
Jun 23vs TEX6 − 4W
Jun 22vs TEX3 − 4L
Jun 21vs SF2 − 1W
Jun 20vs SF6 − 3W
Jun 19vs SF4 − 3W
Jun 17at PHI12 − 4W

COL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jun 28at MIN2 − 3L
Jun 27at MIN8 − 5W
Jun 26at MIN8 − 9L
Jun 24vs BOS8 − 6W
Jun 23vs BOS2 − 5L
Jun 22vs BOS3 − 2W
Jun 21vs PIT6 − 8L
Jun 20vs PIT2 − 1W
Jun 19vs PIT4 − 3W
Jun 17at CHC6 − 8L