bayesRatings

Rockies at Twins

MLB · Sunday, Jun 28 · 1:10 PM CT · Target Field · Final COL 2 – MIN 3
← MLB / Jun 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL100001000271
MIN01010010380
Team box
COL·MIN
7
hits
8
0
home runs
2
1
walks
0
14
strikeouts
1
116
pitches thrown
126
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kody ClemensMIN1-4111
Ryan KreidlerMIN1-3111
Troy JohnstonCOL2-4001
TJ RumfieldCOL2-4101
Cole CarriggCOL2-3000
Brooks LeeMIN2-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ryan FeltnerCOL6.05100
Seth Halvorsen (L)COL0.23100
Connor PrielippMIN6.062010
Andrew Morris (W)MIN1.10002
Yoendrys Gomez (S)MIN1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +3
COL +3
123456789
largest lead: MIN 1 · COL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 40%, MIN 60% · Updated Jun 28

Expected margin
MIN by 0.8
Expected score
MIN 6.0 – 5.1 COL
Expected total
11.1
RockiesThe matchupTwins
+152Our fair odds−152
5.1Expected runs6.0
−0.48Power rating−0.12
4.6Runs / game4.9
5.7Allowed / game5.2
8.7Hits / game8.4
1.11Home runs / game1.21
3.1Walks drawn / game3.3
33−50Season record39−45
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · MIN chance
Our model fair39.7%60.3%
Kalshi42.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+15240%+13442.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins−15260%−16862.7%———
SpreadMIN by 0.8
COLColorado Rockies+0.8our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.1
Over11.1our total————
Under11.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Twins by 0.8 expected
Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 15%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 15 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 16 runs: <1%
← COL wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more44%
Minnesota Twins wins by 3 or more35%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.557%
Total over 11.541%
Total over 13.528%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLRyan Feltner SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 6.00 ERA, 12 Kstarted
MINConnor Prielipp SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 4.96 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·MIN
Jun 27 at MIN
last game
Jun 27 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 83+ games
COL·MIN
−0.48
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
4.6
runs / game
4.9
5.7
runs allowed / game
5.2
33−50
season record
39−45
18−22
home record
21−23
15−28
away record
18−22
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.7
hits / game
8.4
1.11
home runs / game
1.21
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
7.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.58
errors / game
0.56

Rating Trend

COL · MIN · 95 days
Colorado RockiesMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 5−5
Jun 27at MINCOL 8 − 5
Jun 26at MINMIN 9 − 8
Jul 20, 2025at COLMIN 7 − 1
Jul 19, 2025at COLCOL 10 − 6
Jul 18, 2025at COLCOL 6 − 4
Jun 12, 2024at MINMIN 17 − 9
Jun 11, 2024at MINCOL 5 − 4
Jun 10, 2024at MINMIN 5 − 0
Oct 1, 2023at COLCOL 3 − 2
Sep 30, 2023at COLMIN 14 − 6

COL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jun 27at MIN8 − 5W
Jun 26at MIN8 − 9L
Jun 24vs BOS8 − 6W
Jun 23vs BOS2 − 5L
Jun 22vs BOS3 − 2W
Jun 21vs PIT6 − 8L
Jun 20vs PIT2 − 1W
Jun 19vs PIT4 − 3W
Jun 17at CHC6 − 8L
Jun 16at CHC5 − 2W

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jun 27vs COL5 − 8L
Jun 26vs COL9 − 8W
Jun 24vs LAD3 − 4L
Jun 23vs LAD3 − 12L
Jun 22vs LAD1 − 2L
Jun 21at ARI4 − 2W
Jun 20at ARI16 − 8W
Jun 19at ARI5 − 9L
Jun 18at TEX9 − 3W
Jun 16at TEX12 − 2W