bayesRatings

Twins at Diamondbacks

MLB · Sunday, Jun 21 · 2:15 PM CT · Chase Field · Final MIN 4 – ARI 2
← MLB / Jun 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN0000003014111
ARI020000000261
Team box
MIN·ARI
11
hits
6
0
home runs
0
1
walks
5
5
strikeouts
4
136
pitches thrown
133
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ketel MarteARI2-5002
Alex JacksonMIN2-3001
Trevor LarnachMIN2-4001
Ryan KreidlerMIN3-4100
Josh BellMIN1-1101
Byron BuxtonMIN2-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Mike ParedesMIN5.06231
Cody Laweryson (W)MIN1.00001
Anthony Banda (S)MIN1.00001
Jose CabreraARI5.03003
Juan Morillo (L)ARI1.04201

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +3
MIN +3
123456789
largest lead: ARI 2 · MIN 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 46%, ARI 54% · Updated Jun 21

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ARI 5.0 – 4.9 MIN
Expected total
9.9
TwinsThe matchupDiamondbacks
+117Our fair odds−117
4.9Expected runs5.0
−0.10Power rating−0.01
4.9Runs / game4.3
5.2Allowed / game4.6
8.3Hits / game7.9
1.24Home runs / game0.89
3.4Walks drawn / game3.1
37−41Season record39−37
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · ARI chance
Our model fair46.0%54.0%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+11746%+11446.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−11754%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
MINMinnesota Twins+0.1our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.9
Over9.9our total————
Under9.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 16%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byARI wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more37%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more28%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more37%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.9 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.565%
Total over 9.547%
Total over 11.532%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINMike Paredes SP · last 2 starts: 7.2 IP, 3.52 ERA, 6 Kstarted
ARIJose Cabrera SP · no recent starts on recordstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·ARI
Jun 20 at ARI
last game
Jun 20 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 76+ games
MIN·ARI
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.9
runs / game
4.3
5.2
runs allowed / game
4.6
37−41
season record
39−37
20−19
home record
24−16
17−22
away record
15−21
W1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
5−5
8.3
hits / game
7.9
1.24
home runs / game
0.89
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
7.4
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.0
0.58
errors / game
0.36

Rating Trend

MIN · ARI · 88 days
Minnesota TwinsArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 4−6
Jun 20at ARIMIN 16 − 8
Jun 19at ARIARI 9 − 5
Sep 14, 2025at MINARI 6 − 4
Sep 13, 2025at MINARI 5 − 2
Sep 12, 2025at MINMIN 9 − 8
Jun 27, 2024at ARIMIN 13 − 6
Jun 26, 2024at ARIMIN 8 − 3
Jun 25, 2024at ARIARI 5 − 4
Aug 6, 2023at MINMIN 5 − 3
Aug 5, 2023at MINMIN 12 − 1

MIN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jun 20at ARI16 − 8W
Jun 19at ARI5 − 9L
Jun 18at TEX9 − 3W
Jun 16at TEX12 − 2W
Jun 15at TEX4 − 2W
Jun 14vs STL5 − 4W
Jun 13vs STL6 − 9L
Jun 12vs STL9 − 8W
Jun 11at DET0 − 11L
Jun 10at DET6 − 4W

ARI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jun 20vs MIN8 − 16L
Jun 19vs MIN9 − 5W
Jun 17vs LAA8 − 1W
Jun 16vs LAA0 − 7L
Jun 15vs LAA4 − 3W
Jun 14at CIN5 − 3W
Jun 13at CIN1 − 2L
Jun 12at CIN5 − 2W
Jun 11at MIA0 − 2L
Jun 10at MIA0 − 8L