bayesRatings

Twins at Diamondbacks

MLB · Friday, Jun 19 · 8:45 PM CT · Chase Field · Final MIN 5 – ARI 9
← MLB / Jun 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN0111000205101
ARI001041039130
Team box
MIN·ARI
10
hits
13
3
home runs
1
5
walks
4
6
strikeouts
8
144
pitches thrown
126
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Corbin CarrollARI3-4104
Ketel MarteARI1-4111
Josh BellMIN1-4111
Victor CaratiniMIN1-2111
Royce LewisMIN1-4111
Ildemaro VargasARI1-4002
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Connor Prielipp (L)MIN6.09334
Michael SorokaARI1.02000
Jonathan Loaisiga (W)ARI1.10000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +4
MIN +4
123456789
largest lead: ARI 4 · MIN 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 46%, ARI 54% · Updated Jun 19

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ARI 5.0 – 4.6 MIN
Expected total
9.6
TwinsThe matchupDiamondbacks
+118Our fair odds−118
4.6Expected runs5.0
−0.11Power rating−0.01
4.8Runs / game4.2
5.1Allowed / game4.5
8.2Hits / game7.9
1.22Home runs / game0.89
3.3Walks drawn / game3.1
36−40Season record38−36
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · ARI chance
Our model fair45.8%54.2%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+11846%+14640.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−11854%−17563.6%———
Spreadabout even
MINMinnesota Twins+0.3our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.6
Over9.6our total————
Under9.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 11%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 15%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byARI wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more39%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more29%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.545%
Total over 11.530%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINConnor Prielipp SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 5.51 ERA, 16 Kstarted
ARIMichael Soroka SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 2.70 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·ARI
Jun 18 at TEX
last game
Jun 17 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 74+ games
MIN·ARI
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.8
runs / game
4.2
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.5
36−40
season record
38−36
20−19
home record
23−15
16−21
away record
15−21
W4
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.2
hits / game
7.9
1.22
home runs / game
0.89
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.4
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.1
0.58
errors / game
0.36

Rating Trend

MIN · ARI · 86 days
Minnesota TwinsArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 4−6
Sep 14, 2025at MINARI 6 − 4
Sep 13, 2025at MINARI 5 − 2
Sep 12, 2025at MINMIN 9 − 8
Jun 27, 2024at ARIMIN 13 − 6
Jun 26, 2024at ARIMIN 8 − 3
Jun 25, 2024at ARIARI 5 − 4
Aug 6, 2023at MINMIN 5 − 3
Aug 5, 2023at MINMIN 12 − 1
Aug 4, 2023at MINMIN 3 − 2
Jun 19, 2022at ARIARI 7 − 1

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Jun 18at TEX9 − 3W
Jun 16at TEX12 − 2W
Jun 15at TEX4 − 2W
Jun 14vs STL5 − 4W
Jun 13vs STL6 − 9L
Jun 12vs STL9 − 8W
Jun 11at DET0 − 11L
Jun 10at DET6 − 4W
Jun 9at DET4 − 10L
Jun 7vs KC5 − 6L

ARI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 17vs LAA8 − 1W
Jun 16vs LAA0 − 7L
Jun 15vs LAA4 − 3W
Jun 14at CIN5 − 3W
Jun 13at CIN1 − 2L
Jun 12at CIN5 − 2W
Jun 11at MIA0 − 2L
Jun 10at MIA0 − 8L
Jun 9at MIA6 − 10L
Jun 7vs WSH5 − 1W