bayesRatings

Red Sox at Rockies

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 24 · 2:10 PM CT · Coors Field · Final BOS 6 – COL 8
← MLB / Jun 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS1202100006112
COL002100328140
Team box
BOS·COL
11
hits
14
2
home runs
0
1
walks
1
8
strikeouts
11
151
pitches thrown
125
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Connor WongBOS2-4212
Cole CarriggCOL2-4103
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS3-5101
Tyler FreemanCOL2-3202
Andruw MonasterioBOS1-4111
Anthony SeiglerBOS2-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ranger SuarezBOS6.07119
Justin Slaten (L)BOS1.04201
Kyle FreelandCOL6.011614
Antonio Senzatela (W)COL2.00002
Jimmy Herget (S)COL1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +3
BOS +3
123456789
largest lead: COL 2 · BOS 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 61%, COL 39% · Updated Jun 24

Expected margin
BOS by 1.8
Expected score
BOS 6.2 – 4.3 COL
Expected total
10.5
Red SoxThe matchupRockies
−156Our fair odds+156
6.2Expected runs4.3
+0.00Power rating−0.51
3.9Runs / game4.5
4.0Allowed / game5.7
8.2Hits / game8.6
0.84Home runs / game1.07
2.9Walks drawn / game3.1
32−45Season record31−49
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · COL chance
Our model fair60.9%39.1%
Kalshi62.7%42.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox−15661%−16862.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+15639%+13442.7%———
SpreadBOS by 1.8
BOSBoston Red Sox−1.8our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+1.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.5
Over10.5our total————
Under10.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 1.8 expected
Boston Red Sox by 17 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 16 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 15 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 14 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 10%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 14%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byCOL wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more52%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more42%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.562%
Total over 10.545%
Total over 12.531%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSRanger Suarez SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 1.50 ERA, 18 Kstarted
COLKyle Freeland SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 5.50 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·COL
Jun 23 at COL
last game
Jun 23 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 77+ games
BOS·COL
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.51
3.9
runs / game
4.5
4.0
runs allowed / game
5.7
32−45
season record
31−49
12−25
home record
17−22
20−20
away record
14−27
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.2
hits / game
8.6
0.84
home runs / game
1.07
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.1
0.47
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

BOS · COL · 91 days
Boston Red SoxColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 4−6
Jun 23at COLBOS 5 − 2
Jun 22at COLCOL 3 − 2
Jul 9, 2025at BOSBOS 10 − 2
Jul 8, 2025at BOSBOS 10 − 2
Jul 7, 2025at BOSBOS 9 − 3
Jul 24, 2024at COLCOL 20 − 7
Jul 23, 2024at COLBOS 6 − 0
Jul 22, 2024at COLCOL 9 − 8
Jun 14, 2023at BOSBOS 6 − 3
Jun 13, 2023at BOSCOL 7 − 6

BOS · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jun 23at COL5 − 2W
Jun 22at COL2 − 3L
Jun 21at SEA1 − 3L
Jun 20at SEA5 − 1W
Jun 19at SEA6 − 2W
Jun 18vs TOR3 − 4L
Jun 17vs TOR0 − 3L
Jun 16vs TOR1 − 6L
Jun 14vs TEX4 − 6L
Jun 13vs TEX6 − 3W

COL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jun 23vs BOS2 − 5L
Jun 22vs BOS3 − 2W
Jun 21vs PIT6 − 8L
Jun 20vs PIT2 − 1W
Jun 19vs PIT4 − 3W
Jun 17at CHC6 − 8L
Jun 16at CHC5 − 2W
Jun 15at CHC4 − 5L
Jun 14at ATH23 − 9W
Jun 13at ATH5 − 7L