bayesRatings

Red Sox at Rockies

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 23 · 7:40 PM CT · Coors Field · Final BOS 5 – COL 2
← MLB / Jun 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS1100120005111
COL010000001280
Team box
BOS·COL
11
hits
8
1
home runs
2
6
walks
3
4
strikeouts
12
114
pitches thrown
145
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Wilyer AbreuBOS2-4112
Nate EatonBOS3-4202
Willi CastroCOL1-3111
Ezequiel TovarCOL1-4111
Anthony SeiglerBOS2-3100
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sonny Gray (W)BOS7.061311
Sean Sullivan (L)COL5.05353

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +4
BOS +4
123456789
largest lead: COL 0 · BOS 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 61%, COL 39% · Updated Jun 23

Expected margin
BOS by 1.8
Expected score
BOS 6.2 – 4.4 COL
Expected total
10.6
Red SoxThe matchupRockies
−153Our fair odds+153
6.2Expected runs4.4
−0.00Power rating−0.50
3.9Runs / game4.5
4.0Allowed / game5.7
8.1Hits / game8.6
0.84Home runs / game1.06
2.9Walks drawn / game3.1
31−45Season record31−48
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · COL chance
Our model fair60.5%39.5%
Kalshi61.7%42.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox−15361%−16161.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+15339%+13442.7%———
SpreadBOS by 1.8
BOSBoston Red Sox−1.8our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+1.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.6
Over10.6our total————
Under10.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 1.8 expected
Boston Red Sox by 17 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 16 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 15 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 14 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 9%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 14%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byCOL wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more52%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more42%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.563%
Total over 10.546%
Total over 12.532%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSSonny Gray SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 3.26 ERA, 14 Kstarted
COLSean Sullivan SP · last 2 starts: 7.0 IP, 10.29 ERA, 4 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·COL
Jun 22 at COL
last game
Jun 22 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 76+ games
BOS·COL
−0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.50
3.9
runs / game
4.5
4.0
runs allowed / game
5.7
31−45
season record
31−48
12−25
home record
17−21
19−20
away record
14−27
L2
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.1
hits / game
8.6
0.84
home runs / game
1.06
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.2
0.46
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

BOS · COL · 90 days
Boston Red SoxColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 5−5
Jun 22at COLCOL 3 − 2
Jul 9, 2025at BOSBOS 10 − 2
Jul 8, 2025at BOSBOS 10 − 2
Jul 7, 2025at BOSBOS 9 − 3
Jul 24, 2024at COLCOL 20 − 7
Jul 23, 2024at COLBOS 6 − 0
Jul 22, 2024at COLCOL 9 − 8
Jun 14, 2023at BOSBOS 6 − 3
Jun 13, 2023at BOSCOL 7 − 6
Jun 12, 2023at BOSCOL 4 − 3

BOS · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jun 22at COL2 − 3L
Jun 21at SEA1 − 3L
Jun 20at SEA5 − 1W
Jun 19at SEA6 − 2W
Jun 18vs TOR3 − 4L
Jun 17vs TOR0 − 3L
Jun 16vs TOR1 − 6L
Jun 14vs TEX4 − 6L
Jun 13vs TEX6 − 3W
Jun 12vs TEX10 − 1W

COL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 22vs BOS3 − 2W
Jun 21vs PIT6 − 8L
Jun 20vs PIT2 − 1W
Jun 19vs PIT4 − 3W
Jun 17at CHC6 − 8L
Jun 16at CHC5 − 2W
Jun 15at CHC4 − 5L
Jun 14at ATH23 − 9W
Jun 13at ATH5 − 7L
Jun 12at ATH4 − 6L