bayesRatings

Dodgers at Twins

MLB · Monday, Jun 22 · 6:40 PM CT · Target Field · Final LAD 2 – MIN 1
← MLB / Jun 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD100001000290
MIN100000000130
Team box
LAD·MIN
9
hits
3
2
home runs
1
3
walks
4
8
strikeouts
5
138
pitches thrown
151
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Freddie FreemanLAD1-4111
Shohei OhtaniLAD1-4111
Byron BuxtonMIN1-4111
Alex CallLAD2-3000
Tommy EdmanLAD2-4000
Miguel RojasLAD1-1000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Will KleinLAD1.02112
Eric Lauer (W)LAD6.00032
Tanner Scott (S)LAD1.00000
Zebby Matthews (L)MIN6.06225

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +3
LAD +3
123456789
largest lead: MIN 0 · LAD 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 59%, MIN 41% · Updated Jun 22

Expected margin
LAD by 1.8
Expected score
LAD 6.0 – 4.2 MIN
Expected total
10.2
DodgersThe matchupTwins
−143Our fair odds+143
6.0Expected runs4.2
+0.34Power rating−0.09
5.2Runs / game4.9
3.5Allowed / game5.1
8.7Hits / game8.4
1.35Home runs / game1.23
4.1Walks drawn / game3.4
49−29Season record38−41
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · MIN chance
Our model fair58.8%41.2%
Kalshi60.7%43.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−14359%−15460.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins+14341%+12943.7%———
SpreadLAD by 1.8
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.8our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+1.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.2
Over10.2our total————
Under10.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.8 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 17 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 16 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 10%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 14%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 15 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 16 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 17 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byMIN wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more52%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more42%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.560%
Total over 10.543%
Total over 12.529%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADWill Klein RP · last 1 start: 2.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 2 Kstarted
MINZebby Matthews SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 4.95 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·MIN
Jun 21 vs BAL
last game
Jun 21 at ARI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 78+ games
LAD·MIN
+0.34
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
5.2
runs / game
4.9
3.5
runs allowed / game
5.1
49−29
season record
38−41
26−14
home record
20−19
23−15
away record
18−22
L2
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
7−3
8.7
hits / game
8.4
1.35
home runs / game
1.23
4.1
walks drawn / game
3.4
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.32
errors / game
0.58

Rating Trend

LAD · MIN · 89 days
Los Angeles DodgersMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 3−7
Jul 23, 2025at LADLAD 4 − 3
Jul 22, 2025at LADMIN 10 − 7
Jul 21, 2025at LADLAD 5 − 2
Apr 10, 2024at MINMIN 3 − 2
Apr 9, 2024at MINLAD 6 − 3
Apr 8, 2024at MINLAD 4 − 2
May 17, 2023at LADLAD 7 − 3
May 16, 2023at LADMIN 5 − 1
May 15, 2023at LADLAD 9 − 8
Aug 10, 2022at LADLAD 8 − 5

LAD · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Jun 21vs BAL1 − 12L
Jun 20vs BAL2 − 3L
Jun 19vs BAL6 − 5W
Jun 17vs TB5 − 4W
Jun 16vs TB1 − 0W
Jun 15vs TB4 − 3W
Jun 14at CHW4 − 6L
Jun 13at CHW7 − 1W
Jun 12at CHW2 − 8L
Jun 11at PIT8 − 6W

MIN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Jun 21at ARI4 − 2W
Jun 20at ARI16 − 8W
Jun 19at ARI5 − 9L
Jun 18at TEX9 − 3W
Jun 16at TEX12 − 2W
Jun 15at TEX4 − 2W
Jun 14vs STL5 − 4W
Jun 13vs STL6 − 9L
Jun 12vs STL9 − 8W
Jun 11at DET0 − 11L