bayesRatings

Rockies at Twins

MLB · Saturday, Jun 27 · 6:10 PM CT · Target Field · Final COL 8 – MIN 5
← MLB / Jun 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL1010103208120
MIN1000010035100
Team box
COL·MIN
12
hits
10
4
home runs
0
4
walks
1
4
strikeouts
4
154
pitches thrown
148
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Hunter GoodmanCOL3-5335
Trevor LarnachMIN3-5103
Kyle KarrosCOL1-3112
Tyler FreemanCOL2-5000
Jake McCarthyCOL2-5200
TJ RumfieldCOL2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael Lorenzen (W)COL5.27201
Jimmy Herget (S)COL0.20000
Mike Paredes (L)MIN5.18302

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +6
COL +6
123456789
largest lead: MIN 0 · COL 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 39%, MIN 61% · Updated Jun 27

Expected margin
MIN by 0.8
Expected score
MIN 6.0 – 5.1 COL
Expected total
11.1
RockiesThe matchupTwins
+158Our fair odds−158
5.1Expected runs6.0
−0.50Power rating−0.11
4.6Runs / game4.9
5.7Allowed / game5.2
8.6Hits / game8.3
1.07Home runs / game1.23
3.1Walks drawn / game3.3
32−50Season record39−44
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · MIN chance
Our model fair38.8%61.2%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+15839%+11945.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins−15861%−14258.7%———
SpreadMIN by 0.8
COLColorado Rockies+0.8our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.1
Over11.1our total————
Under11.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Twins by 0.8 expected
Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 15%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 15 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 16 runs: <1%
← COL wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more44%
Minnesota Twins wins by 3 or more35%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.557%
Total over 11.541%
Total over 13.528%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLMichael Lorenzen SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 3.52 ERA, 17 Kstarted
MINMike Paredes SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 3.55 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·MIN
Jun 26 at MIN
last game
Jun 26 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
COL·MIN
−0.50
rating (0 = average)
−0.11
4.6
runs / game
4.9
5.7
runs allowed / game
5.2
32−50
season record
39−44
18−22
home record
21−22
14−28
away record
18−22
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.6
hits / game
8.3
1.07
home runs / game
1.23
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
7.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.59
errors / game
0.57

Rating Trend

COL · MIN · 94 days
Colorado RockiesMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 6−4
Jun 26at MINMIN 9 − 8
Jul 20, 2025at COLMIN 7 − 1
Jul 19, 2025at COLCOL 10 − 6
Jul 18, 2025at COLCOL 6 − 4
Jun 12, 2024at MINMIN 17 − 9
Jun 11, 2024at MINCOL 5 − 4
Jun 10, 2024at MINMIN 5 − 0
Oct 1, 2023at COLCOL 3 − 2
Sep 30, 2023at COLMIN 14 − 6
Sep 29, 2023at COLMIN 7 − 6

COL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jun 26at MIN8 − 9L
Jun 24vs BOS8 − 6W
Jun 23vs BOS2 − 5L
Jun 22vs BOS3 − 2W
Jun 21vs PIT6 − 8L
Jun 20vs PIT2 − 1W
Jun 19vs PIT4 − 3W
Jun 17at CHC6 − 8L
Jun 16at CHC5 − 2W
Jun 15at CHC4 − 5L

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jun 26vs COL9 − 8W
Jun 24vs LAD3 − 4L
Jun 23vs LAD3 − 12L
Jun 22vs LAD1 − 2L
Jun 21at ARI4 − 2W
Jun 20at ARI16 − 8W
Jun 19at ARI5 − 9L
Jun 18at TEX9 − 3W
Jun 16at TEX12 − 2W
Jun 15at TEX4 − 2W