bayesRatings

Rockies at Twins

MLB · Friday, Jun 26 · 7:10 PM CT · Target Field · Final COL 8 – MIN 9
← MLB / Jun 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
COL00000003508111
MIN22003000119140
Team box
COL·MIN
11
hits
14
2
home runs
2
4
walks
2
8
strikeouts
4
153
pitches thrown
150
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake McCarthyCOL3-5212
Hunter GoodmanCOL1-4113
Byron BuxtonMIN3-5202
Kody ClemensMIN1-4212
Brooks LeeMIN1-4112
Royce LewisMIN3-5101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tomoyuki SuganoCOL5.08712
Jimmy Herget (L)COL0.01010
Taj BradleyMIN7.03237
Andrew Morris (W)MIN1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +7
COL +7
12345678910
largest lead: MIN 7 · COL 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 39%, MIN 61% · Updated Jun 26

Expected margin
MIN by 0.9
Expected score
MIN 5.9 – 5.0 COL
Expected total
10.9
RockiesThe matchupTwins
+154Our fair odds−154
5.0Expected runs5.9
−0.49Power rating−0.12
4.6Runs / game4.8
5.7Allowed / game5.2
8.6Hits / game8.3
1.06Home runs / game1.22
3.1Walks drawn / game3.4
32−49Season record38−44
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · MIN chance
Our model fair39.4%60.6%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+15439%+14640.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins−15461%−17563.6%———
SpreadMIN by 0.9
COLColorado Rockies+0.9our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.9
Over10.9our total————
Under10.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Twins by 0.9 expected
Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 15%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 15 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 16 runs: <1%
← COL wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more44%
Minnesota Twins wins by 3 or more35%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.9 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.565%
Total over 10.548%
Total over 12.534%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLTomoyuki Sugano SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 5.62 ERA, 10 Kstarted
MINTaj Bradley SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 6.19 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·MIN
Jun 24 vs BOS
last game
Jun 24 vs LAD
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 81+ games
COL·MIN
−0.49
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
4.6
runs / game
4.8
5.7
runs allowed / game
5.2
32−49
season record
38−44
18−22
home record
20−22
14−27
away record
18−22
W1
streak
L3
6−4
last 10
6−4
8.6
hits / game
8.3
1.06
home runs / game
1.22
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
7.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.58
errors / game
0.57

Rating Trend

COL · MIN · 93 days
Colorado RockiesMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 6−4
Jul 20, 2025at COLMIN 7 − 1
Jul 19, 2025at COLCOL 10 − 6
Jul 18, 2025at COLCOL 6 − 4
Jun 12, 2024at MINMIN 17 − 9
Jun 11, 2024at MINCOL 5 − 4
Jun 10, 2024at MINMIN 5 − 0
Oct 1, 2023at COLCOL 3 − 2
Sep 30, 2023at COLMIN 14 − 6
Sep 29, 2023at COLMIN 7 − 6
Jun 26, 2022at MINMIN 6 − 3

COL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jun 24vs BOS8 − 6W
Jun 23vs BOS2 − 5L
Jun 22vs BOS3 − 2W
Jun 21vs PIT6 − 8L
Jun 20vs PIT2 − 1W
Jun 19vs PIT4 − 3W
Jun 17at CHC6 − 8L
Jun 16at CHC5 − 2W
Jun 15at CHC4 − 5L
Jun 14at ATH23 − 9W

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L3
Jun 24vs LAD3 − 4L
Jun 23vs LAD3 − 12L
Jun 22vs LAD1 − 2L
Jun 21at ARI4 − 2W
Jun 20at ARI16 − 8W
Jun 19at ARI5 − 9L
Jun 18at TEX9 − 3W
Jun 16at TEX12 − 2W
Jun 15at TEX4 − 2W
Jun 14vs STL5 − 4W