bayesRatings

Marlins at Cardinals

MLB · Friday, Jun 26 · 7:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final MIA 4 – STL 0
← MLB / Jun 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA000000022480
STL000000000030
Team box
MIA·STL
8
hits
3
0
home runs
0
5
walks
2
4
strikeouts
7
118
pitches thrown
160
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jakob MarseeMIA1-5002
Esteury RuizMIA2-3200
Kyle StowersMIA1-4001
Graham PauleyMIA1-4101
Griffin ConineMIA1-3000
Xavier EdwardsMIA1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Max Meyer (W)MIA7.02025
Michael McGreevySTL6.05014
George Soriano (L)STL1.02220

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +4
MIA +4
123456789
largest lead: STL 0 · MIA 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 48%, STL 52% · Updated Jun 26

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
STL 4.5 – 4.5 MIA
Expected total
9.0
MarlinsThe matchupCardinals
+108Our fair odds−108
4.5Expected runs4.5
−0.01Power rating−0.00
4.3Runs / game4.6
4.3Allowed / game4.6
8.1Hits / game8.4
0.90Home runs / game1.13
3.3Walks drawn / game3.4
42−39Season record42−36
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · STL chance
Our model fair48.2%51.8%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+10848%−11653.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−10852%−10350.7%———
Spreadabout even
MIAMiami Marlins+0.1our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 10%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 13%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 15%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%
← MIA wins bySTL wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more37%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more27%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIAMax Meyer SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 2.76 ERA, 21 Kstarted
STLMichael McGreevy SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 4.76 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·STL
Jun 24 vs TEX
last game
Jun 24 vs ARI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 78+ games
MIA·STL
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
4.3
runs / game
4.6
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.6
42−39
season record
42−36
28−17
home record
22−19
14−22
away record
20−17
W2
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
4−6
8.1
hits / game
8.4
0.90
home runs / game
1.13
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.5
0.64
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

MIA · STL · 93 days
Miami MarlinsSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 4−6
Apr 22at MIAMIA 4 − 1
Apr 21at MIASTL 5 − 3
Apr 20at MIAMIA 5 − 3
Aug 20, 2025at MIAMIA 6 − 2
Aug 19, 2025at MIASTL 7 − 4
Aug 18, 2025at MIASTL 8 − 3
Jul 30, 2025at STLMIA 2 − 0
Jul 29, 2025at STLMIA 5 − 0
Jul 28, 2025at STLSTL 7 − 1
Jun 19, 2024at MIAMIA 4 − 3

MIA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Jun 24vs TEX4 − 2W
Jun 23vs TEX6 − 4W
Jun 22vs TEX3 − 4L
Jun 21vs SF2 − 1W
Jun 20vs SF6 − 3W
Jun 19vs SF4 − 3W
Jun 17at PHI12 − 4W
Jun 16at PHI2 − 8L
Jun 15at PHI0 − 7L
Jun 14at PIT4 − 2W

STL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jun 24vs ARI4 − 9L
Jun 23vs ARI3 − 4L
Jun 22vs ARI3 − 2W
Jun 21at KC12 − 10W
Jun 19at KC5 − 6L
Jun 18at KC6 − 14L
Jun 17vs SD1 − 6L
Jun 16vs SD3 − 2W
Jun 15vs SD3 − 0W
Jun 14at MIN4 − 5L