bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Cardinals

MLB · Monday, Jun 22 · 6:45 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final ARI 2 – STL 3
← MLB / Jun 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI000001100280
STL00120000370
Team box
ARI·STL
8
hits
7
1
home runs
0
0
walks
4
2
strikeouts
4
127
pitches thrown
127
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Tommy TroyARI1-4111
Nathan ChurchSTL2-3101
Nolan ArenadoARI1-4001
Ketel MarteARI2-4000
Corbin CarrollARI2-4100
Alec BurlesonSTL1-2001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Merrill Kelly (L)ARI6.07332
Andre Pallante (W)STL6.06102
Riley O'Brien (S)STL1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
ARI +3
123456789
largest lead: STL 3 · ARI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 48%, STL 52% · Updated Jun 22

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ARI 4.7 – 4.6 STL
Expected total
9.3
DiamondbacksThe matchupCardinals
+110Our fair odds−110
4.7Expected runs4.6
−0.02Power rating+0.00
4.3Runs / game4.7
4.6Allowed / game4.6
7.9Hits / game8.4
0.88Home runs / game1.16
3.2Walks drawn / game3.4
39−38Season record41−34
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · STL chance
Our model fair47.7%52.3%
Kalshi44.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+11048%+12444.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−11052%−15460.7%———
Spreadabout even
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.1our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 17%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%
← ARI wins bySTL wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more38%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more28%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIMerrill Kelly SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 8.27 ERA, 9 Kstarted
STLAndre Pallante SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 2.41 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·STL
Jun 21 vs MIN
last game
Jun 21 at KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 75+ games
ARI·STL
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
4.3
runs / game
4.7
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.6
39−38
season record
41−34
24−17
home record
21−17
15−21
away record
20−17
L2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
7.9
hits / game
8.4
0.88
home runs / game
1.16
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.4
7.4
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
7.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.36
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

ARI · STL · 89 days
Arizona DiamondbacksSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 5−5
Jul 20, 2025at ARIARI 5 − 3
Jul 19, 2025at ARIARI 10 − 1
Jul 18, 2025at ARIARI 7 − 3
May 25, 2025at STLSTL 4 − 3
May 24, 2025at STLSTL 6 − 5
May 23, 2025at STLSTL 4 − 3
Apr 24, 2024at STLSTL 5 − 1
Apr 23, 2024at STLARI 14 − 1
Apr 22, 2024at STLSTL 5 − 3
Apr 14, 2024at ARIARI 5 − 0

ARI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jun 21vs MIN2 − 4L
Jun 20vs MIN8 − 16L
Jun 19vs MIN9 − 5W
Jun 17vs LAA8 − 1W
Jun 16vs LAA0 − 7L
Jun 15vs LAA4 − 3W
Jun 14at CIN5 − 3W
Jun 13at CIN1 − 2L
Jun 12at CIN5 − 2W
Jun 11at MIA0 − 2L

STL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jun 21at KC12 − 10W
Jun 19at KC5 − 6L
Jun 18at KC6 − 14L
Jun 17vs SD1 − 6L
Jun 16vs SD3 − 2W
Jun 15vs SD3 − 0W
Jun 14at MIN4 − 5L
Jun 13at MIN9 − 6W
Jun 12at MIN8 − 9L
Jun 11at NYM4 − 5L