bayesRatings

Cardinals at Royals

MLB · Thursday, Jun 18 · 6:40 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final STL 6 – KC 14
← MLB / Jun 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL2001102006131
KC1604011114171
Team box
STL·KC
13
hits
17
0
home runs
3
6
walks
2
8
strikeouts
5
167
pitches thrown
184
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Salvador PerezKC3-5211
Bobby Witt Jr.KC2-2212
Jac CaglianoneKC1-5112
Starling MarteKC3-5201
Lane ThomasKC2-5102
Nick LoftinKC2-5002
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Matthew Liberatore (L)STL1.27502
Noah Cameron (W)KC5.08326

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +8
STL +8
123456789
largest lead: KC 8 · STL 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 51%, KC 49% · Updated Jun 18

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
STL 4.1 – 4.0 KC
Expected total
8.2
CardinalsThe matchupRoyals
−104Our fair odds+104
4.1Expected runs4.0
+0.02Power rating−0.10
4.5Runs / game4.0
4.4Allowed / game4.7
8.3Hits / game8.2
1.15Home runs / game0.92
3.3Walks drawn / game3.4
40−32Season record30−45
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · KC chance
Our model fair51.0%49.0%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−10451%−10350.7%———
KCKansas City Royals+10449%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−0.1our margin————
KCKansas City Royals+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 15%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 15%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 10%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%
← STL wins byKC wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more36%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more26%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLMatthew Liberatore SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 12 Kstarted
KCNoah Cameron SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 2.60 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·KC
Jun 17 vs SD
last game
Jun 17 at WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 72+ games
STL·KC
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.10
4.5
runs / game
4.0
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.7
40−32
season record
30−45
21−17
home record
17−21
19−15
away record
13−24
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.3
hits / game
8.2
1.15
home runs / game
0.92
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.4
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.46
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

STL · KC · 85 days
St. Louis CardinalsKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 5−5
May 17at STLKC 2 − 0
May 16at STLSTL 4 − 2
May 15at STLSTL 5 − 4
Jun 5, 2025at STLKC 7 − 5
Jun 5, 2025at STLSTL 6 − 5
Jun 3, 2025at STLKC 10 − 7
May 18, 2025at KCKC 2 − 1
May 17, 2025at KCSTL 1 − 0
May 16, 2025at KCSTL 10 − 3
Aug 10, 2024at KCKC 8 − 3

STL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jun 17vs SD1 − 6L
Jun 16vs SD3 − 2W
Jun 15vs SD3 − 0W
Jun 14at MIN4 − 5L
Jun 13at MIN9 − 6W
Jun 12at MIN8 − 9L
Jun 11at NYM4 − 5L
Jun 10at NYM9 − 2W
Jun 9at NYM7 − 0W
Jun 7vs CIN5 − 3W

KC · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jun 17at WSH6 − 2W
Jun 16at WSH4 − 6L
Jun 15at WSH3 − 7L
Jun 14vs HOU4 − 0W
Jun 13vs HOU7 − 8L
Jun 12vs HOU8 − 10L
Jun 11vs TEX2 − 4L
Jun 10vs TEX4 − 6L
Jun 9vs TEX5 − 3W
Jun 7at MIN6 − 5W