bayesRatings

Cardinals at Royals

MLB · Friday, Jun 19 · 7:15 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final STL 5 – KC 6
← MLB / Jun 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL101000003581
KC00041100690
Team box
STL·KC
8
hits
9
0
home runs
1
4
walks
3
1
strikeouts
3
136
pitches thrown
140
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jac CaglianoneKC2-4212
Isaac CollinsKC2-4002
Jordan WalkerSTL2-3001
Blaze JordanSTL1-4002
Michael MasseyKC1-4101
Ivan HerreraSTL1-2101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael McGreevy (L)STL5.08512
Seth Lugo (W)KC6.05130
Alex Lange (S)KC0.11000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +4
STL +4
123456789
largest lead: KC 4 · STL 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 50%, KC 50% · Updated Jun 19

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
KC 4.2 – 4.2 STL
Expected total
8.4
CardinalsThe matchupRoyals
−101Our fair odds+101
4.2Expected runs4.2
+0.00Power rating−0.08
4.5Runs / game4.1
4.5Allowed / game4.7
8.3Hits / game8.3
1.14Home runs / game0.95
3.4Walks drawn / game3.4
40−33Season record31−45
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · KC chance
Our model fair50.3%49.7%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−10150%−12655.7%———
KCKansas City Royals+10150%+10548.7%———
Spreadabout even
STLSt. Louis CardinalsPKour margin————
KCKansas City RoyalsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 15%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 14%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 10%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%
← STL wins byKC wins by →
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more35%
Kansas City Royals wins by 3 or more25%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLMichael McGreevy SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 8 Kstarted
KCSeth Lugo SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 4.40 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·KC
Jun 18 at KC
last game
Jun 18 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 73+ games
STL·KC
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.5
runs / game
4.1
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.7
40−33
season record
31−45
21−17
home record
18−21
19−16
away record
13−24
L2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.3
hits / game
8.3
1.14
home runs / game
0.95
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.4
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.47
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

STL · KC · 86 days
St. Louis CardinalsKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 5−5
Jun 18at KCKC 14 − 6
May 17at STLKC 2 − 0
May 16at STLSTL 4 − 2
May 15at STLSTL 5 − 4
Jun 5, 2025at STLKC 7 − 5
Jun 5, 2025at STLSTL 6 − 5
Jun 3, 2025at STLKC 10 − 7
May 18, 2025at KCKC 2 − 1
May 17, 2025at KCSTL 1 − 0
May 16, 2025at KCSTL 10 − 3

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jun 18at KC6 − 14L
Jun 17vs SD1 − 6L
Jun 16vs SD3 − 2W
Jun 15vs SD3 − 0W
Jun 14at MIN4 − 5L
Jun 13at MIN9 − 6W
Jun 12at MIN8 − 9L
Jun 11at NYM4 − 5L
Jun 10at NYM9 − 2W
Jun 9at NYM7 − 0W

KC · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Jun 18vs STL14 − 6W
Jun 17at WSH6 − 2W
Jun 16at WSH4 − 6L
Jun 15at WSH3 − 7L
Jun 14vs HOU4 − 0W
Jun 13vs HOU7 − 8L
Jun 12vs HOU8 − 10L
Jun 11vs TEX2 − 4L
Jun 10vs TEX4 − 6L
Jun 9vs TEX5 − 3W