bayesRatings

Marlins at Cardinals

MLB · Sunday, Jun 28 · 1:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final MIA 1 – STL 2
← MLB / Jun 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA000010000140
STL02000000260
Team box
MIA·STL
4
hits
6
0
home runs
1
3
walks
0
9
strikeouts
2
104
pitches thrown
141
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bryan TorresSTL1-3112
Graham PauleyMIA1-2001
JJ WetherholtSTL2-4000
Xavier EdwardsMIA1-3000
Leo JimenezMIA1-1000
Owen CaissieMIA1-1100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tyler Phillips (L)MIA7.16201
Kyle Leahy (W)STL5.02135
Riley O'Brien (S)STL1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
MIA +3
123456789
largest lead: STL 2 · MIA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 49%, STL 51% · Updated Jun 28

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
STL 4.5 – 4.5 MIA
Expected total
8.9
MarlinsThe matchupCardinals
+104Our fair odds−104
4.5Expected runs4.5
+0.00Power rating−0.02
4.3Runs / game4.5
4.2Allowed / game4.6
8.1Hits / game8.3
0.88Home runs / game1.10
3.3Walks drawn / game3.4
44−39Season record42−38
8−2Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · STL chance
Our model fair48.9%51.1%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+10449%+10548.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−10451%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
MIAMiami MarlinsPKour margin————
STLSt. Louis CardinalsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 10%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 13%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 15%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%
← MIA wins bySTL wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more36%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more26%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIATyler Phillips SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 6.00 ERA, 13 Kstarted
STLKyle Leahy SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.63 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·STL
Jun 27 at STL
last game
Jun 27 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 80+ games
MIA·STL
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.3
runs / game
4.5
4.2
runs allowed / game
4.6
44−39
season record
42−38
28−17
home record
22−21
16−22
away record
20−17
W4
streak
L4
8−2
last 10
3−7
8.1
hits / game
8.3
0.88
home runs / game
1.10
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.5
0.63
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

MIA · STL · 95 days
Miami MarlinsSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 3−7
Jun 27at STLMIA 5 − 1
Jun 26at STLMIA 4 − 0
Apr 22at MIAMIA 4 − 1
Apr 21at MIASTL 5 − 3
Apr 20at MIAMIA 5 − 3
Aug 20, 2025at MIAMIA 6 − 2
Aug 19, 2025at MIASTL 7 − 4
Aug 18, 2025at MIASTL 8 − 3
Jul 30, 2025at STLMIA 2 − 0
Jul 29, 2025at STLMIA 5 − 0

MIA · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
Jun 27at STL5 − 1W
Jun 26at STL4 − 0W
Jun 24vs TEX4 − 2W
Jun 23vs TEX6 − 4W
Jun 22vs TEX3 − 4L
Jun 21vs SF2 − 1W
Jun 20vs SF6 − 3W
Jun 19vs SF4 − 3W
Jun 17at PHI12 − 4W
Jun 16at PHI2 − 8L

STL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Jun 27vs MIA1 − 5L
Jun 26vs MIA0 − 4L
Jun 24vs ARI4 − 9L
Jun 23vs ARI3 − 4L
Jun 22vs ARI3 − 2W
Jun 21at KC12 − 10W
Jun 19at KC5 − 6L
Jun 18at KC6 − 14L
Jun 17vs SD1 − 6L
Jun 16vs SD3 − 2W