bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Mariners

MLB · Sunday, Jul 5 · 4:00 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final TOR 0 – SEA 4
← MLB / Jul 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR000000000031
SEA00120001460
Team box
TOR·SEA
3
hits
6
0
home runs
1
2
walks
2
6
strikeouts
10
134
pitches thrown
113
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Mitch GarverSEA1-3112
Josh NaylorSEA1-4001
Cal RaleighSEA1-3001
Victor RoblesSEA1-3100
Randy ArozarenaSEA1-4100
Luke RaleySEA1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Trey Yesavage (L)TOR6.03227
Emerson Hancock (W)SEA7.02025

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +4
TOR +4
123456789
largest lead: SEA 4 · TOR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 48%, SEA 52% · Updated Jul 5

Expected margin
SEA by 0.5
Expected score
SEA 4.2 – 3.7 TOR
Expected total
7.9
Blue JaysThe matchupMariners
+110Our fair odds−110
3.7Expected runs4.2
+0.02Power rating+0.05
4.0Runs / game4.1
4.4Allowed / game3.8
8.2Hits / game7.7
0.99Home runs / game1.20
2.7Walks drawn / game3.3
42−47Season record46−44
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · SEA chance
Our model fair47.7%52.3%
Kalshi51.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 4:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays+11048%−10751.8%———
SEASeattle Mariners−11052%−11653.7%———
SpreadSEA by 0.5
TORToronto Blue Jays+0.5our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.9
Over7.9our total————
Under7.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 0.5 expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 18%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 13%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 11%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%
← TOR wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more40%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more29%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.548%
Total over 9.530%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORTrey Yesavage SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 2.29 ERA, 14 Kstarted
SEAEmerson Hancock SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 7.20 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·SEA
Jul 4 at SEA
last game
Jul 4 vs TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 89+ games
TOR·SEA
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.0
runs / game
4.1
4.4
runs allowed / game
3.8
42−47
season record
46−44
24−25
home record
26−20
18−22
away record
20−24
L1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
5−5
8.2
hits / game
7.7
0.99
home runs / game
1.20
2.7
walks drawn / game
3.3
7.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.63
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

TOR · SEA · 102 days
Toronto Blue JaysSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 4−6
Jul 4at SEASEA 11 − 0
Jul 3at SEATOR 2 − 0
Oct 20, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 3post
Oct 19, 2025at TORTOR 6 − 2post
Oct 17, 2025at SEASEA 6 − 2post
Oct 16, 2025at SEATOR 8 − 2post
Oct 15, 2025at SEATOR 13 − 4post
Oct 13, 2025at TORSEA 10 − 3post
Oct 12, 2025at TORSEA 3 − 1post
May 11, 2025at SEATOR 9 − 1

TOR · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Jul 4at SEA0 − 11L
Jul 3at SEA2 − 0W
Jul 1vs NYM9 − 3W
Jun 30vs NYM0 − 3L
Jun 29vs NYM2 − 1W
Jun 28vs TEX2 − 3L
Jun 27vs TEX4 − 7L
Jun 26vs TEX4 − 5L
Jun 25vs TEX5 − 6L
Jun 24vs HOU1 − 3L

SEA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jul 4vs TOR11 − 0W
Jul 3vs TOR0 − 2L
Jul 2vs LAA1 − 0W
Jun 30vs LAA8 − 3W
Jun 29vs LAA6 − 2W
Jun 28at CLE5 − 6L
Jun 27at CLE3 − 4L
Jun 26at CLE3 − 1W
Jun 25at PIT1 − 5L
Jun 24at PIT1 − 11L