bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Mariners

MLB · Saturday, Jul 4 · 3:10 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final TOR 0 – SEA 11
← MLB / Jul 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR000000000011
SEA0500240011110
Team box
TOR·SEA
1
hits
11
0
home runs
3
0
walks
3
8
strikeouts
9
162
pitches thrown
111
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Randy ArozarenaSEA3-4314
Dominic CanzoneSEA2-4213
Cal RaleighSEA1-4113
Victor RoblesSEA1-4101
Colt EmersonSEA2-4200
Josh NaylorSEA1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shane Bieber (L)TOR4.06733
Logan Gilbert (W)SEA7.11007

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +11
TOR +11
123456789
largest lead: SEA 11 · TOR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 48%, SEA 52% · Updated Jul 4

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SEA 4.1 – 3.8 TOR
Expected total
7.9
Blue JaysThe matchupMariners
+107Our fair odds−107
3.8Expected runs4.1
+0.03Power rating+0.03
4.0Runs / game4.0
4.4Allowed / game3.9
8.3Hits / game7.6
1.00Home runs / game1.18
2.8Walks drawn / game3.3
42−46Season record45−44
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · SEA chance
Our model fair48.2%51.8%
Kalshi42.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays+10748%+13442.7%———
SEASeattle Mariners−10752%−16862.7%———
Spreadabout even
TORToronto Blue Jays+0.3our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.9
Over7.9our total————
Under7.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 16%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 14%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 11%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%
← TOR wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more38%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more27%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.548%
Total over 9.530%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORShane Bieber SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 4.40 ERA, 9 Kstarted
SEALogan Gilbert SP · last 3 starts: 20.1 IP, 2.66 ERA, 25 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·SEA
Jul 3 at SEA
last game
Jul 3 vs TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 88+ games
TOR·SEA
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
4.0
runs / game
4.0
4.4
runs allowed / game
3.9
42−46
season record
45−44
24−25
home record
25−20
18−21
away record
20−24
W2
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
5−5
8.3
hits / game
7.6
1.00
home runs / game
1.18
2.8
walks drawn / game
3.3
7.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.62
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

TOR · SEA · 101 days
Toronto Blue JaysSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 3−7
Jul 3at SEATOR 2 − 0
Oct 20, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 3post
Oct 19, 2025at TORTOR 6 − 2post
Oct 17, 2025at SEASEA 6 − 2post
Oct 16, 2025at SEATOR 8 − 2post
Oct 15, 2025at SEATOR 13 − 4post
Oct 13, 2025at TORSEA 10 − 3post
Oct 12, 2025at TORSEA 3 − 1post
May 11, 2025at SEATOR 9 − 1
May 10, 2025at SEATOR 6 − 3

TOR · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Jul 3at SEA2 − 0W
Jul 1vs NYM9 − 3W
Jun 30vs NYM0 − 3L
Jun 29vs NYM2 − 1W
Jun 28vs TEX2 − 3L
Jun 27vs TEX4 − 7L
Jun 26vs TEX4 − 5L
Jun 25vs TEX5 − 6L
Jun 24vs HOU1 − 3L
Jun 23vs HOU7 − 9L

SEA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 3vs TOR0 − 2L
Jul 2vs LAA1 − 0W
Jun 30vs LAA8 − 3W
Jun 29vs LAA6 − 2W
Jun 28at CLE5 − 6L
Jun 27at CLE3 − 4L
Jun 26at CLE3 − 1W
Jun 25at PIT1 − 5L
Jun 24at PIT1 − 11L
Jun 23at PIT3 − 2W