bayesRatings

Mariners at Marlins

MLB · Tuesday, Jul 7 · 5:40 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final SEA 5 – MIA 6
← MLB / Jul 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
SEA0000200300581
MIA02110001016111
Team box
SEA·MIA
8
hits
11
1
home runs
2
4
walks
4
8
strikeouts
8
155
pitches thrown
176
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jakob MarseeMIA2-4002
Heriberto HernandezMIA1-2111
Owen CaissieMIA1-2111
Cole YoungSEA1-3111
Liam HicksMIA3-5100
Cal RaleighSEA2-5101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bryan WooSEA5.09315
Michael Rucker (L)SEA0.11010
Max MeyerMIA5.04224
Cade Gibson (W)MIA1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +4
SEA +4
12345678910
largest lead: MIA 4 · SEA 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 49%, MIA 51% · Updated Jul 7

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SEA 4.4 – 4.2 MIA
Expected total
8.7
MarinersThe matchupMarlins
+102Our fair odds−102
4.4Expected runs4.2
+0.05Power rating+0.02
4.1Runs / game4.6
3.8Allowed / game4.3
7.6Hits / game8.4
1.20Home runs / game1.00
3.3Walks drawn / game3.5
47−44Season record49−42
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · MIA chance
Our model fair49.5%50.5%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners+10249%+10548.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins−10251%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
SEASeattle Mariners−0.2our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 12%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 17%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 10%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byMIA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more38%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more28%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEABryan Woo SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.63 ERA, 18 Kstarted
MIAMax Meyer SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 1.50 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·MIA
Jul 5 vs TOR
last game
Jul 5 at ATH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 91+ games
SEA·MIA
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
4.1
runs / game
4.6
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.3
47−44
season record
49−42
27−20
home record
28−17
20−24
away record
21−25
W2
streak
W3
6−4
last 10
7−3
7.6
hits / game
8.4
1.20
home runs / game
1.00
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.49
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

SEA · MIA · 104 days
Seattle MarinersMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 4−6
Apr 27, 2025at SEASEA 7 − 6
Apr 26, 2025at SEASEA 14 − 0
Apr 25, 2025at SEAMIA 8 − 4
Jun 23, 2024at MIAMIA 6 − 4
Jun 22, 2024at MIASEA 9 − 0
Jun 21, 2024at MIAMIA 3 − 2
Jun 14, 2023at SEAMIA 4 − 1
Jun 13, 2023at SEASEA 9 − 3
Jun 12, 2023at SEASEA 8 − 1
May 1, 2022at MIASEA 7 − 3

SEA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jul 5vs TOR4 − 0W
Jul 4vs TOR11 − 0W
Jul 3vs TOR0 − 2L
Jul 2vs LAA1 − 0W
Jun 30vs LAA8 − 3W
Jun 29vs LAA6 − 2W
Jun 28at CLE5 − 6L
Jun 27at CLE3 − 4L
Jun 26at CLE3 − 1W
Jun 25at PIT1 − 5L

MIA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Jul 5at ATH9 − 8W
Jul 4at ATH7 − 2W
Jul 3at ATH12 − 5W
Jul 2at COL4 − 14L
Jul 1at COL3 − 6L
Jun 30at COL14 − 3W
Jun 29at COL10 − 7W
Jun 28at STL1 − 2L
Jun 27at STL5 − 1W
Jun 26at STL4 − 0W