bayesRatings

Marlins at Athletics

MLB · Saturday, Jul 4 · 8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final MIA 7 – ATH 2
← MLB / Jul 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA0030102017132
ATH000000101270
Team box
MIA·ATH
13
hits
7
3
home runs
0
6
walks
1
7
strikeouts
9
114
pitches thrown
182
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Otto LopezMIA3-5113
Kyle StowersMIA2-4212
Joe MackMIA2-5111
Liam HicksMIA3-5200
Carlos CortesATH2-4100
Joshua Kuroda-GrauerATH2-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sandy Alcantara (W)MIA8.06118
Aaron Civale (L)ATH4.26426

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +6
MIA +6
123456789
largest lead: ATH 0 · MIA 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 52%, ATH 48% · Updated Jul 4

Expected margin
MIA by 0.6
Expected score
MIA 5.4 – 4.8 ATH
Expected total
10.2
MarlinsThe matchupAthletics
−107Our fair odds+107
5.4Expected runs4.8
+0.00Power rating−0.13
4.5Runs / game4.6
4.3Allowed / game5.4
8.3Hits / game8.5
0.94Home runs / game1.28
3.4Walks drawn / game3.7
47−42Season record41−47
7−3Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · ATH chance
Our model fair51.7%48.3%
Kalshi58.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins−10752%−14258.7%———
ATHAthletics+10748%+11446.7%———
SpreadMIA by 0.6
MIAMiami Marlins−0.6our margin————
ATHAthletics+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.2
Over10.2our total————
Under10.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Marlins by 0.6 expected
Miami Marlins by 15 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 10%Athletics by 1 run: 15%Athletics by 2 runs: 8%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 15 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byATH wins by →
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more42%
Miami Marlins wins by 3 or more33%
Athletics wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.560%
Total over 10.543%
Total over 12.529%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIASandy Alcantara SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 3.93 ERA, 13 Kstarted
ATHAaron Civale RP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 8.25 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·ATH
Jul 3 at ATH
last game
Jul 3 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
9th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 88+ games
MIA·ATH
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
4.5
runs / game
4.6
4.3
runs allowed / game
5.4
47−42
season record
41−47
28−17
home record
19−26
19−25
away record
22−21
W1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
3−7
8.3
hits / game
8.5
0.94
home runs / game
1.28
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.60
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

MIA · ATH · 101 days
Miami MarlinsAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 4−6
Jul 3at ATHMIA 12 − 5
May 4, 2025at MIAATH 3 − 2
May 3, 2025at MIAMIA 9 − 6
May 2, 2025at MIAATH 6 − 1
May 5, 2024at ATHMIA 12 − 3
May 4, 2024at ATHATH 20 − 4
May 3, 2024at ATHATH 3 − 1
Jun 4, 2023at MIAMIA 7 − 5
Jun 3, 2023at MIAMIA 12 − 1
Jun 2, 2023at MIAMIA 4 − 0

MIA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jul 3at ATH12 − 5W
Jul 2at COL4 − 14L
Jul 1at COL3 − 6L
Jun 30at COL14 − 3W
Jun 29at COL10 − 7W
Jun 28at STL1 − 2L
Jun 27at STL5 − 1W
Jun 26at STL4 − 0W
Jun 24vs TEX4 − 2W
Jun 23vs TEX6 − 4W

ATH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Jul 3vs MIA5 − 12L
Jul 1vs LAD7 − 1W
Jun 30vs LAD3 − 9L
Jun 29vs LAD4 − 9L
Jun 28at LAA1 − 4L
Jun 27at LAA2 − 5L
Jun 26at LAA9 − 3W
Jun 25at SF9 − 6W
Jun 24at SF1 − 2L
Jun 23at SF1 − 3L