bayesRatings

Dodgers at Athletics

MLB · Monday, Jun 29 · 8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final LAD 9 – ATH 4
← MLB / Jun 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD0203030109170
ATH0300000014110
Team box
LAD·ATH
17
hits
11
3
home runs
1
2
walks
3
10
strikeouts
7
152
pitches thrown
175
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Shohei OhtaniLAD2-5113
Max MuncyLAD2-5112
Andy PagesLAD2-5112
Colby ThomasATH2-3111
Joshua Kuroda-GrauerATH3-4101
Freddie FreemanLAD2-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Eric Lauer (W)LAD6.09312
Gage Jump (L)ATH4.211505

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +6
LAD +6
123456789
largest lead: ATH 1 · LAD 6lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 60%, ATH 40% · Updated Jun 29

Expected margin
LAD by 2.0
Expected score
LAD 6.2 – 4.2 ATH
Expected total
10.3
DodgersThe matchupAthletics
−153Our fair odds+153
6.2Expected runs4.2
+0.39Power rating−0.11
5.3Runs / game4.6
3.5Allowed / game5.2
8.8Hits / game8.4
1.35Home runs / game1.27
4.1Walks drawn / game3.8
54−30Season record40−44
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · ATH chance
Our model fair60.4%39.6%
Kalshi54.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−15360%−12154.7%———
ATHAthletics+15340%+10149.7%———
SpreadLAD by 2.0
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−2our margin————
ATHAthletics+2our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.3
Over10.3our total————
Under10.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 2.0 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 17 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 16 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 10%Athletics by 1 run: 14%Athletics by 2 runs: 7%Athletics by 3 runs: 5%Athletics by 4 runs: 4%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 7 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 16 runs: <1%Athletics by 17 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byATH wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more53%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more43%
Athletics wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.560%
Total over 10.544%
Total over 12.530%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADEric Lauer SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 10 Kstarted
ATHGage Jump SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 1.59 ERA, 22 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·ATH
Jun 28 at SD
last game
Jun 28 at LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 84+ games
LAD·ATH
+0.39
rating (0 = average)
−0.11
5.3
runs / game
4.6
3.5
runs allowed / game
5.2
54−30
season record
40−44
26−14
home record
18−23
28−16
away record
22−21
W2
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
4−6
8.8
hits / game
8.4
1.35
home runs / game
1.27
4.1
walks drawn / game
3.8
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.31
errors / game
0.39

Rating Trend

LAD · ATH · 96 days
Los Angeles DodgersAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 3−7
May 15, 2025at LADLAD 19 − 2
May 14, 2025at LADLAD 9 − 3
May 13, 2025at LADATH 11 − 1
Aug 4, 2024at ATHLAD 3 − 2
Aug 3, 2024at ATHLAD 10 − 0
Aug 2, 2024at ATHATH 6 − 5
Aug 3, 2023at LADLAD 8 − 2
Aug 2, 2023at LADLAD 10 − 1
Aug 1, 2023at LADLAD 7 − 3
Apr 7, 2021at ATHATH 4 − 3

LAD · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Jun 28at SD4 − 2W
Jun 27at SD15 − 3W
Jun 26at SD1 − 7L
Jun 24at MIN4 − 3W
Jun 23at MIN12 − 3W
Jun 22at MIN2 − 1W
Jun 21vs BAL1 − 12L
Jun 20vs BAL2 − 3L
Jun 19vs BAL6 − 5W
Jun 17vs TB5 − 4W

ATH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jun 28at LAA1 − 4L
Jun 27at LAA2 − 5L
Jun 26at LAA9 − 3W
Jun 25at SF9 − 6W
Jun 24at SF1 − 2L
Jun 23at SF1 − 3L
Jun 21vs LAA7 − 9L
Jun 20vs LAA0 − 7L
Jun 19vs LAA12 − 11W
Jun 18vs LAA5 − 0W