bayesRatings

Dodgers at Padres

MLB · Sunday, Jun 28 · 3:10 PM CT · Petco Park · Final LAD 4 – SD 2
← MLB / Jun 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD001030000450
SD000101000260
Team box
LAD·SD
5
hits
6
0
home runs
1
4
walks
3
9
strikeouts
10
146
pitches thrown
155
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Manny MachadoSD2-4111
Mookie BettsLAD2-4002
Xander BogaertsSD2-4001
Shohei OhtaniLAD1-4101
Freddie FreemanLAD0-3001
Kyle TuckerLAD1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Emmet Sheehan (W)LAD5.02125
Edgardo Henriquez (S)LAD1.00010
Michael King (L)SD4.13445

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +3
LAD +3
123456789
largest lead: SD 0 · LAD 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 57%, SD 43% · Updated Jun 28

Expected margin
LAD by 1.0
Expected score
LAD 4.4 – 3.4 SD
Expected total
7.8
DodgersThe matchupPadres
−130Our fair odds+130
4.4Expected runs3.4
+0.38Power rating+0.05
5.3Runs / game3.9
3.5Allowed / game4.1
8.9Hits / game7.2
1.36Home runs / game1.02
4.1Walks drawn / game3.3
53−30Season record43−38
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · SD chance
Our model fair56.5%43.5%
Kalshi57.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−13057%−13757.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres+13043%+11446.7%———
SpreadLAD by 1.0
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.8
Over7.8our total————
Under7.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.0 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 9%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 12%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 12%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 18%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 9%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%
← LAD wins bySD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more45%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more33%
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.8 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.547%
Total over 9.529%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADEmmet Sheehan SP · last 3 starts: 9.2 IP, 10.24 ERA, 14 Kstarted
SDMichael King SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·SD
Jun 27 at SD
last game
Jun 27 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 81+ games
LAD·SD
+0.38
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
5.3
runs / game
3.9
3.5
runs allowed / game
4.1
53−30
season record
43−38
26−14
home record
23−20
27−16
away record
20−18
W1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
6−4
8.9
hits / game
7.2
1.36
home runs / game
1.02
4.1
walks drawn / game
3.3
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.31
errors / game
0.33

Rating Trend

LAD · SD · 95 days
Los Angeles DodgersSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 4−6
Jun 27at SDLAD 15 − 3
Jun 26at SDSD 7 − 1
May 20at SDLAD 4 − 0
May 19at SDLAD 5 − 4
May 18at SDSD 1 − 0
Aug 24, 2025at SDLAD 8 − 2
Aug 23, 2025at SDSD 5 − 1
Aug 22, 2025at SDSD 2 − 1
Aug 17, 2025at LADLAD 5 − 4
Aug 16, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 0

LAD · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jun 27at SD15 − 3W
Jun 26at SD1 − 7L
Jun 24at MIN4 − 3W
Jun 23at MIN12 − 3W
Jun 22at MIN2 − 1W
Jun 21vs BAL1 − 12L
Jun 20vs BAL2 − 3L
Jun 19vs BAL6 − 5W
Jun 17vs TB5 − 4W
Jun 16vs TB1 − 0W

SD · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jun 27vs LAD3 − 15L
Jun 26vs LAD7 − 1W
Jun 24vs ATL5 − 2W
Jun 23vs ATL7 − 6W
Jun 22vs ATL1 − 0W
Jun 21at TEX3 − 4L
Jun 20at TEX6 − 4W
Jun 19at TEX7 − 9L
Jun 17at STL6 − 1W
Jun 16at STL2 − 3L