bayesRatings

Braves at Padres

MLB · Monday, Jun 22 · 9:00 PM CT · Petco Park · Final ATL 0 – SD 1
← MLB / Jun 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL000000000070
SD00010000141
Team box
ATL·SD
7
hits
4
0
home runs
1
1
walks
7
9
strikeouts
9
156
pitches thrown
125
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Manny MachadoSD2-3111
Austin RileyATL3-4000
Matt OlsonATL1-4000
Mike YastrzemskiATL1-4000
Mauricio DubonATL1-4000
Michael Harris IIATL1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Grant Holmes (L)ATL4.23154
Michael King (W)SD7.06005
Mason Miller (S)SD1.01012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +3
ATL +3
123456789
largest lead: SD 1 · ATL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 51%, SD 49% · Updated Jun 22

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ATL 3.9 – 3.6 SD
Expected total
7.6
BravesThe matchupPadres
−105Our fair odds+105
3.9Expected runs3.6
+0.15Power rating+0.03
5.0Runs / game3.9
3.7Allowed / game4.0
8.6Hits / game7.2
1.33Home runs / game1.03
3.0Walks drawn / game3.2
48−28Season record39−37
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · SD chance
Our model fair51.1%48.9%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−10551%−10751.8%———
SDSan Diego Padres+10549%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.3our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.6
Over7.6our total————
Under7.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 14%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 18%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%
← ATL wins bySD wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more37%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more26%
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.6 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 3%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 6%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.566%
Total over 7.545%
Total over 9.527%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLGrant Holmes SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 6.17 ERA, 8 Kstarted
SDMichael King SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 5.29 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·SD
Jun 21 vs MIL
last game
Jun 21 at TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 76+ games
ATL·SD
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
5.0
runs / game
3.9
3.7
runs allowed / game
4.0
48−28
season record
39−37
24−14
home record
19−19
24−14
away record
20−18
L1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
5−5
8.6
hits / game
7.2
1.33
home runs / game
1.03
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.2
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.43
errors / game
0.30

Rating Trend

ATL · SD · 89 days
Atlanta BravesSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 8−2
May 25, 2025at ATLSD 5 − 3
May 24, 2025at ATLATL 7 − 1
May 23, 2025at ATLSD 2 − 1
Mar 30, 2025at SDSD 5 − 0
Mar 29, 2025at SDSD 1 − 0
Mar 28, 2025at SDSD 4 − 3
Mar 27, 2025at SDSD 7 − 4
Oct 2, 2024at SDSD 5 − 4post
Oct 1, 2024at SDSD 4 − 0post
Jul 14, 2024at SDATL 6 − 3

ATL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Jun 21vs MIL4 − 9L
Jun 20vs MIL4 − 3W
Jun 19vs MIL3 − 2W
Jun 17vs SF5 − 7L
Jun 16vs SF2 − 7L
Jun 14at NYM1 − 8L
Jun 13at NYM3 − 1W
Jun 12at NYM5 − 7L
Jun 10at CHW1 − 2L
Jun 9at CHW5 − 6L

SD · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jun 21at TEX3 − 4L
Jun 20at TEX6 − 4W
Jun 19at TEX7 − 9L
Jun 17at STL6 − 1W
Jun 16at STL2 − 3L
Jun 15at STL0 − 3L
Jun 14at BAL5 − 2W
Jun 13at BAL9 − 3W
Jun 12at BAL3 − 7L
Jun 10vs CIN5 − 4W