bayesRatings

Brewers at Braves

MLB · Friday, Jun 19 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final MIL 2 – ATL 3
← MLB / Jun 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL0010000012110
ATL00000210370
Team box
MIL·ATL
11
hits
7
0
home runs
1
4
walks
1
7
strikeouts
10
117
pitches thrown
147
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brice TurangMIL2-5002
Mike YastrzemskiATL1-3111
Mauricio DubonATL1-4002
Dominic SmithATL2-4000
Andrew VaughnMIL2-4000
Garrett MitchellMIL2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jacob Misiorowski (L)MIL6.05217
Martin Perez (W)ATL6.06125
Raisel Iglesias (S)ATL1.02111

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +3
MIL +3
123456789
largest lead: ATL 2 · MIL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 53%, ATL 47% · Updated Jun 19

Expected margin
MIL by 0.6
Expected score
MIL 4.6 – 4.0 ATL
Expected total
8.6
BrewersThe matchupBraves
−115Our fair odds+115
4.6Expected runs4.0
+0.35Power rating+0.15
5.3Runs / game5.0
3.7Allowed / game3.6
8.6Hits / game8.7
0.93Home runs / game1.33
4.3Walks drawn / game3.1
45−27Season record46−27
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · ATL chance
Our model fair53.5%46.5%
Kalshi63.6%40.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−11553%−17563.6%———
ATLAtlanta Braves+11547%+14640.7%———
SpreadMIL by 0.6
MILMilwaukee Brewers−0.6our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 0.6 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 12%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 16%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 9%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byATL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more41%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more31%
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILJacob Misiorowski SP · last 3 starts: 23.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 31 Kstarted
ATLMartin Perez SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 3.52 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·ATL
Jun 18 vs CLE
last game
Jun 17 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 72+ games
MIL·ATL
+0.35
rating (0 = average)
+0.15
5.3
runs / game
5.0
3.7
runs allowed / game
3.6
45−27
season record
46−27
25−15
home record
22−13
20−12
away record
24−14
L1
streak
L3
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.6
hits / game
8.7
0.93
home runs / game
1.33
4.3
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
9.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.42
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

MIL · ATL · 86 days
Milwaukee BrewersAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 3−7
Aug 6, 2025at ATLMIL 5 − 4
Aug 5, 2025at ATLMIL 7 − 2
Aug 4, 2025at ATLMIL 3 − 1
Jun 11, 2025at MILATL 6 − 2
Jun 10, 2025at MILMIL 4 − 1
Jun 9, 2025at MILATL 7 − 1
Aug 8, 2024at ATLMIL 16 − 7
Aug 7, 2024at ATLMIL 8 − 5
Aug 6, 2024at ATLMIL 10 − 0
Jul 31, 2024at MILATL 6 − 2

MIL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jun 18vs CLE2 − 4L
Jun 17vs CLE9 − 4W
Jun 16vs CLE2 − 1W
Jun 14vs PHI4 − 0W
Jun 13vs PHI8 − 9L
Jun 12vs PHI6 − 0W
Jun 10at ATH3 − 4L
Jun 9at ATH5 − 7L
Jun 8at ATH15 − 14W
Jun 7at COL12 − 4W

ATL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Jun 17vs SF5 − 7L
Jun 16vs SF2 − 7L
Jun 14at NYM1 − 8L
Jun 13at NYM3 − 1W
Jun 12at NYM5 − 7L
Jun 10at CHW1 − 2L
Jun 9at CHW5 − 6L
Jun 7vs PIT3 − 2W
Jun 6vs PIT6 − 3W
Jun 5vs PIT6 − 3W