bayesRatings

Brewers at Braves

MLB · Saturday, Jun 20 · 3:10 PM CT · Truist Park · Final MIL 3 – ATL 4
← MLB / Jun 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL000002100380
ATL000010102461
Team box
MIL·ATL
8
hits
6
0
home runs
2
1
walks
0
10
strikeouts
9
115
pitches thrown
150
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ozzie AlbiesATL3-4323
William ContrerasMIL2-4000
Andrew VaughnMIL1-3001
Jackson ChourioMIL1-4101
Cooper PrattMIL2-4100
Matt OlsonATL1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle HarrisonMIL6.14207
Aaron Ashby (L)MIL0.12201
Chris SaleATL5.25017
Dylan Lee (W)ATL1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +3
MIL +3
123456789
largest lead: ATL 1 · MIL 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 53%, ATL 47% · Updated Jun 20

Expected margin
MIL by 0.6
Expected score
MIL 4.5 – 4.0 ATL
Expected total
8.5
BrewersThe matchupBraves
−111Our fair odds+111
4.5Expected runs4.0
+0.34Power rating+0.15
5.3Runs / game5.0
3.7Allowed / game3.6
8.7Hits / game8.6
0.92Home runs / game1.32
4.3Walks drawn / game3.0
45−28Season record47−27
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · ATL chance
Our model fair52.7%47.3%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−11153%+11446.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves+11147%−13757.7%———
SpreadMIL by 0.6
MILMilwaukee Brewers−0.6our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 0.6 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 12%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 17%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 9%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byATL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more41%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more31%
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILKyle Harrison SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 5.79 ERA, 19 Kstarted
ATLChris Sale SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·ATL
Jun 19 at ATL
last game
Jun 19 vs MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
2nd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 73+ games
MIL·ATL
+0.34
rating (0 = average)
+0.15
5.3
runs / game
5.0
3.7
runs allowed / game
3.6
45−28
season record
47−27
25−15
home record
23−13
20−13
away record
24−14
L2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.7
hits / game
8.6
0.92
home runs / game
1.32
4.3
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
9.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.41
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

MIL · ATL · 87 days
Milwaukee BrewersAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 3−7
Jun 19at ATLATL 3 − 2
Aug 6, 2025at ATLMIL 5 − 4
Aug 5, 2025at ATLMIL 7 − 2
Aug 4, 2025at ATLMIL 3 − 1
Jun 11, 2025at MILATL 6 − 2
Jun 10, 2025at MILMIL 4 − 1
Jun 9, 2025at MILATL 7 − 1
Aug 8, 2024at ATLMIL 16 − 7
Aug 7, 2024at ATLMIL 8 − 5
Aug 6, 2024at ATLMIL 10 − 0

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jun 19at ATL2 − 3L
Jun 18vs CLE2 − 4L
Jun 17vs CLE9 − 4W
Jun 16vs CLE2 − 1W
Jun 14vs PHI4 − 0W
Jun 13vs PHI8 − 9L
Jun 12vs PHI6 − 0W
Jun 10at ATH3 − 4L
Jun 9at ATH5 − 7L
Jun 8at ATH15 − 14W

ATL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jun 19vs MIL3 − 2W
Jun 17vs SF5 − 7L
Jun 16vs SF2 − 7L
Jun 14at NYM1 − 8L
Jun 13at NYM3 − 1W
Jun 12at NYM5 − 7L
Jun 10at CHW1 − 2L
Jun 9at CHW5 − 6L
Jun 7vs PIT3 − 2W
Jun 6vs PIT6 − 3W