bayesRatings

Brewers at Braves

MLB · Sunday, Jun 21 · 12:35 PM CT · Truist Park · Final MIL 9 – ATL 4
← MLB / Jun 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL0800001009130
ATL100100002471
Team box
MIL·ATL
13
hits
7
1
home runs
1
3
walks
1
9
strikeouts
9
137
pitches thrown
153
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
William ContrerasMIL4-5213
Rowdy TellezATL1-1112
Sal FrelickMIL2-4102
Mauricio DubonATL3-4100
David HamiltonMIL2-4101
Ozzie AlbiesATL1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Robert Gasser (W)MIL6.04217
Chad Patrick (S)MIL3.03202
Bryce Elder (L)ATL6.012826

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +7
MIL +7
123456789
largest lead: ATL 1 · MIL 7lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 52%, ATL 48% · Updated Jun 21

Expected margin
MIL by 0.6
Expected score
MIL 4.5 – 4.0 ATL
Expected total
8.5
BrewersThe matchupBraves
−109Our fair odds+109
4.5Expected runs4.0
+0.32Power rating+0.16
5.2Runs / game5.0
3.7Allowed / game3.6
8.6Hits / game8.6
0.91Home runs / game1.33
4.3Walks drawn / game3.0
45−29Season record48−27
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · ATL chance
Our model fair52.2%47.8%
Kalshi50.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−10952%−10350.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves+10948%−12154.7%———
SpreadMIL by 0.6
MILMilwaukee Brewers−0.6our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 0.6 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 11%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 18%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 9%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byATL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more41%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more31%
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILRobert Gasser SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.02 ERA, 17 Kstarted
ATLBryce Elder SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 5.94 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·ATL
Jun 20 at ATL
last game
Jun 20 vs MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
3rd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 74+ games
MIL·ATL
+0.32
rating (0 = average)
+0.16
5.2
runs / game
5.0
3.7
runs allowed / game
3.6
45−29
season record
48−27
25−15
home record
24−13
20−14
away record
24−14
L3
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.6
hits / game
8.6
0.91
home runs / game
1.33
4.3
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
9.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.41
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

MIL · ATL · 88 days
Milwaukee BrewersAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 4−6
Jun 20at ATLATL 4 − 3
Jun 19at ATLATL 3 − 2
Aug 6, 2025at ATLMIL 5 − 4
Aug 5, 2025at ATLMIL 7 − 2
Aug 4, 2025at ATLMIL 3 − 1
Jun 11, 2025at MILATL 6 − 2
Jun 10, 2025at MILMIL 4 − 1
Jun 9, 2025at MILATL 7 − 1
Aug 8, 2024at ATLMIL 16 − 7
Aug 7, 2024at ATLMIL 8 − 5

MIL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Jun 20at ATL3 − 4L
Jun 19at ATL2 − 3L
Jun 18vs CLE2 − 4L
Jun 17vs CLE9 − 4W
Jun 16vs CLE2 − 1W
Jun 14vs PHI4 − 0W
Jun 13vs PHI8 − 9L
Jun 12vs PHI6 − 0W
Jun 10at ATH3 − 4L
Jun 9at ATH5 − 7L

ATL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Jun 20vs MIL4 − 3W
Jun 19vs MIL3 − 2W
Jun 17vs SF5 − 7L
Jun 16vs SF2 − 7L
Jun 14at NYM1 − 8L
Jun 13at NYM3 − 1W
Jun 12at NYM5 − 7L
Jun 10at CHW1 − 2L
Jun 9at CHW5 − 6L
Jun 7vs PIT3 − 2W