bayesRatings

Dodgers at Padres

MLB · Saturday, Jun 27 · 7:40 PM CT · Petco Park · Final LAD 15 – SD 3
← MLB / Jun 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD01000904115170
SD000011100391
Team box
LAD·SD
17
hits
9
3
home runs
1
5
walks
4
6
strikeouts
6
150
pitches thrown
191
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kyle TuckerLAD3-5114
Gavin SheetsSD3-4112
Mookie BettsLAD1-5113
Tommy EdmanLAD2-4103
Freddie FreemanLAD3-5201
Dalton RushingLAD1-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (W)LAD6.05224
Kyle HartSD2.02112
Randy Vasquez (L)SD3.18411

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +12
LAD +12
123456789
largest lead: SD 0 · LAD 12lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 55%, SD 45% · Updated Jun 27

Expected margin
LAD by 0.8
Expected score
LAD 4.2 – 3.4 SD
Expected total
7.6
DodgersThe matchupPadres
−125Our fair odds+125
4.2Expected runs3.4
+0.36Power rating+0.06
5.2Runs / game4.0
3.5Allowed / game3.9
8.8Hits / game7.2
1.34Home runs / game1.02
4.1Walks drawn / game3.3
52−30Season record43−37
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · SD chance
Our model fair55.5%44.5%
Kalshi67.6%36.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−12555%−20867.6%———
SDSan Diego Padres+12544%+17336.6%———
SpreadLAD by 0.8
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−0.8our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.6
Over7.6our total————
Under7.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 0.8 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 12%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 13%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 18%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 9%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%
← LAD wins bySD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more42%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more31%
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.6 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 3%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 6%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.566%
Total over 7.545%
Total over 9.527%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADYoshinobu Yamamoto SP · last 3 starts: 22.1 IP, 2.01 ERA, 17 Kstarted
SDKyle Hart RP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 7.71 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·SD
Jun 26 at SD
last game
Jun 26 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 80+ games
LAD·SD
+0.36
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
5.2
runs / game
4.0
3.5
runs allowed / game
3.9
52−30
season record
43−37
26−14
home record
23−19
26−16
away record
20−18
L1
streak
W4
7−3
last 10
6−4
8.8
hits / game
7.2
1.34
home runs / game
1.02
4.1
walks drawn / game
3.3
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.32
errors / game
0.33

Rating Trend

LAD · SD · 94 days
Los Angeles DodgersSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 4−6
Jun 26at SDSD 7 − 1
May 20at SDLAD 4 − 0
May 19at SDLAD 5 − 4
May 18at SDSD 1 − 0
Aug 24, 2025at SDLAD 8 − 2
Aug 23, 2025at SDSD 5 − 1
Aug 22, 2025at SDSD 2 − 1
Aug 17, 2025at LADLAD 5 − 4
Aug 16, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 0
Aug 15, 2025at LADLAD 3 − 2

LAD · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jun 26at SD1 − 7L
Jun 24at MIN4 − 3W
Jun 23at MIN12 − 3W
Jun 22at MIN2 − 1W
Jun 21vs BAL1 − 12L
Jun 20vs BAL2 − 3L
Jun 19vs BAL6 − 5W
Jun 17vs TB5 − 4W
Jun 16vs TB1 − 0W
Jun 15vs TB4 − 3W

SD · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Jun 26vs LAD7 − 1W
Jun 24vs ATL5 − 2W
Jun 23vs ATL7 − 6W
Jun 22vs ATL1 − 0W
Jun 21at TEX3 − 4L
Jun 20at TEX6 − 4W
Jun 19at TEX7 − 9L
Jun 17at STL6 − 1W
Jun 16at STL2 − 3L
Jun 15at STL0 − 3L