bayesRatings

Braves at Padres

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 24 · 7:40 PM CT · Petco Park · Final ATL 2 – SD 5
← MLB / Jun 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL000002000261
SD00111200571
Team box
ATL·SD
6
hits
7
1
home runs
1
2
walks
6
6
strikeouts
8
149
pitches thrown
125
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Joey BartATL2-4112
Ty FranceSD2-3212
Samad TaylorSD2-4002
Xander BogaertsSD2-4001
Matt OlsonATL2-4000
Ozzie AlbiesATL1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Martin Perez (L)ATL4.04344
JP Sears (W)SD5.25225
Jason Adam (S)SD1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +3
ATL +3
123456789
largest lead: SD 3 · ATL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 51%, SD 49% · Updated Jun 24

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ATL 3.9 – 3.7 SD
Expected total
7.6
BravesThe matchupPadres
−103Our fair odds+103
3.9Expected runs3.7
+0.13Power rating+0.04
4.9Runs / game3.9
3.7Allowed / game4.0
8.6Hits / game7.2
1.31Home runs / game1.03
3.0Walks drawn / game3.2
48−30Season record41−37
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · SD chance
Our model fair50.6%49.4%
Kalshi55.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−10351%−12655.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres+10349%+10149.7%———
Spreadabout even
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.2our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.6
Over7.6our total————
Under7.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 14%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 17%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%
← ATL wins bySD wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more36%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more26%
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.6 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 3%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 6%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.566%
Total over 7.545%
Total over 9.527%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLMartin Perez SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 2.76 ERA, 14 Kstarted
SDJP Sears SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 5.93 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·SD
Jun 23 at SD
last game
Jun 23 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 78+ games
ATL·SD
+0.13
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
4.9
runs / game
3.9
3.7
runs allowed / game
4.0
48−30
season record
41−37
24−14
home record
21−19
24−16
away record
20−18
L3
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
6−4
8.6
hits / game
7.2
1.31
home runs / game
1.03
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.44
errors / game
0.32

Rating Trend

ATL · SD · 91 days
Atlanta BravesSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 9−1
Jun 23at SDSD 7 − 6
Jun 22at SDSD 1 − 0
May 25, 2025at ATLSD 5 − 3
May 24, 2025at ATLATL 7 − 1
May 23, 2025at ATLSD 2 − 1
Mar 30, 2025at SDSD 5 − 0
Mar 29, 2025at SDSD 1 − 0
Mar 28, 2025at SDSD 4 − 3
Mar 27, 2025at SDSD 7 − 4
Oct 2, 2024at SDSD 5 − 4post

ATL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Jun 23at SD6 − 7L
Jun 22at SD0 − 1L
Jun 21vs MIL4 − 9L
Jun 20vs MIL4 − 3W
Jun 19vs MIL3 − 2W
Jun 17vs SF5 − 7L
Jun 16vs SF2 − 7L
Jun 14at NYM1 − 8L
Jun 13at NYM3 − 1W
Jun 12at NYM5 − 7L

SD · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jun 23vs ATL7 − 6W
Jun 22vs ATL1 − 0W
Jun 21at TEX3 − 4L
Jun 20at TEX6 − 4W
Jun 19at TEX7 − 9L
Jun 17at STL6 − 1W
Jun 16at STL2 − 3L
Jun 15at STL0 − 3L
Jun 14at BAL5 − 2W
Jun 13at BAL9 − 3W