bayesRatings

Dodgers at Padres

MLB · Friday, Jun 26 · 8:45 PM CT · Petco Park · Final LAD 1 – SD 7
← MLB / Jun 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD010000000170
SD03000004770
Team box
LAD·SD
7
hits
7
1
home runs
1
4
walks
9
6
strikeouts
4
143
pitches thrown
123
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ty FranceSD1-2113
Mookie BettsLAD1-3111
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD2-5001
Sung-Mun SongSD1-1102
Freddie FreemanLAD2-3000
Rodolfo DuranSD1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Roki Sasaki (L)LAD4.03352
Walker Buehler (W)SD5.13135

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +6
LAD +6
123456789
largest lead: SD 6 · LAD 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 56%, SD 44% · Updated Jun 26

Expected margin
LAD by 1.0
Expected score
LAD 4.3 – 3.4 SD
Expected total
7.7
DodgersThe matchupPadres
−129Our fair odds+129
4.3Expected runs3.4
+0.38Power rating+0.05
5.2Runs / game3.9
3.4Allowed / game4.0
8.8Hits / game7.2
1.35Home runs / game1.03
4.1Walks drawn / game3.3
52−29Season record42−37
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · SD chance
Our model fair56.4%43.6%
Kalshi59.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−12956%−14859.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres+12944%+12444.7%———
SpreadLAD by 1.0
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.7
Over7.7our total————
Under7.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.0 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 9%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 12%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 12%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 18%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 9%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%
← LAD wins bySD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more44%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more33%
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.7 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 6%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.567%
Total over 7.546%
Total over 9.528%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADRoki Sasaki SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 5.29 ERA, 20 Kstarted
SDWalker Buehler SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 1.80 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·SD
Jun 24 at MIN
last game
Jun 24 vs ATL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 79+ games
LAD·SD
+0.38
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
5.2
runs / game
3.9
3.4
runs allowed / game
4.0
52−29
season record
42−37
26−14
home record
22−19
26−15
away record
20−18
W3
streak
W3
7−3
last 10
6−4
8.8
hits / game
7.2
1.35
home runs / game
1.03
4.1
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.32
errors / game
0.33

Rating Trend

LAD · SD · 93 days
Los Angeles DodgersSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 4−6
May 20at SDLAD 4 − 0
May 19at SDLAD 5 − 4
May 18at SDSD 1 − 0
Aug 24, 2025at SDLAD 8 − 2
Aug 23, 2025at SDSD 5 − 1
Aug 22, 2025at SDSD 2 − 1
Aug 17, 2025at LADLAD 5 − 4
Aug 16, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 0
Aug 15, 2025at LADLAD 3 − 2
Jun 19, 2025at LADSD 5 − 3

LAD · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Jun 24at MIN4 − 3W
Jun 23at MIN12 − 3W
Jun 22at MIN2 − 1W
Jun 21vs BAL1 − 12L
Jun 20vs BAL2 − 3L
Jun 19vs BAL6 − 5W
Jun 17vs TB5 − 4W
Jun 16vs TB1 − 0W
Jun 15vs TB4 − 3W
Jun 14at CHW4 − 6L

SD · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Jun 24vs ATL5 − 2W
Jun 23vs ATL7 − 6W
Jun 22vs ATL1 − 0W
Jun 21at TEX3 − 4L
Jun 20at TEX6 − 4W
Jun 19at TEX7 − 9L
Jun 17at STL6 − 1W
Jun 16at STL2 − 3L
Jun 15at STL0 − 3L
Jun 14at BAL5 − 2W