bayesRatings

Dodgers at Athletics

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 1 · 8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final LAD 1 – ATH 7
← MLB / Jul 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD001000000150
ATH010230017120
Team box
LAD·ATH
5
hits
12
1
home runs
3
6
walks
2
11
strikeouts
5
108
pitches thrown
150
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jonah HeimATH2-3212
Shea LangeliersATH2-5111
Alika WilliamsATH1-3111
Freddie FreemanLAD1-2111
Henry BolteATH2-4001
Colby ThomasATH1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jack DreyerLAD1.00003
Charlie Barnes (L)LAD7.012722
J.T. Ginn (W)ATH6.03154

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +6
LAD +6
123456789
largest lead: ATH 6 · LAD 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 62%, ATH 38% · Updated Jul 1

Expected margin
LAD by 2.2
Expected score
LAD 6.3 – 4.1 ATH
Expected total
10.4
DodgersThe matchupAthletics
−162Our fair odds+162
6.3Expected runs4.1
+0.41Power rating−0.13
5.4Runs / game4.6
3.5Allowed / game5.3
9.0Hits / game8.4
1.37Home runs / game1.27
4.1Walks drawn / game3.7
56−30Season record40−46
7−3Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · ATH chance
Our model fair61.8%38.2%
Kalshi62.7%41.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−16262%−16862.7%———
ATHAthletics+16238%+14041.7%———
SpreadLAD by 2.2
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−2.2our margin————
ATHAthletics+2.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.4
Over10.4our total————
Under10.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 2.2 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 18 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 17 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 16 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 10%Athletics by 1 run: 14%Athletics by 2 runs: 7%Athletics by 3 runs: 5%Athletics by 4 runs: 3%Athletics by 5 runs: 2%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 7 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 16 runs: <1%Athletics by 17 runs: <1%Athletics by 18 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byATH wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more55%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more45%
Athletics wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.561%
Total over 10.544%
Total over 12.530%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADJack Dreyer RP · last 3 starts: 5.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 3 Kstarted
ATHJ.T. Ginn SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.12 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·ATH
Jun 30 at ATH
last game
Jun 30 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
9th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 86+ games
LAD·ATH
+0.41
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
5.4
runs / game
4.6
3.5
runs allowed / game
5.3
56−30
season record
40−46
26−14
home record
18−25
30−16
away record
22−21
W4
streak
L4
7−3
last 10
2−8
9.0
hits / game
8.4
1.37
home runs / game
1.27
4.1
walks drawn / game
3.7
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.30
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

LAD · ATH · 98 days
Los Angeles DodgersAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 2−8
Jun 30at ATHLAD 9 − 3
Jun 29at ATHLAD 9 − 4
May 15, 2025at LADLAD 19 − 2
May 14, 2025at LADLAD 9 − 3
May 13, 2025at LADATH 11 − 1
Aug 4, 2024at ATHLAD 3 − 2
Aug 3, 2024at ATHLAD 10 − 0
Aug 2, 2024at ATHATH 6 − 5
Aug 3, 2023at LADLAD 8 − 2
Aug 2, 2023at LADLAD 10 − 1

LAD · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Jun 30at ATH9 − 3W
Jun 29at ATH9 − 4W
Jun 28at SD4 − 2W
Jun 27at SD15 − 3W
Jun 26at SD1 − 7L
Jun 24at MIN4 − 3W
Jun 23at MIN12 − 3W
Jun 22at MIN2 − 1W
Jun 21vs BAL1 − 12L
Jun 20vs BAL2 − 3L

ATH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
Jun 30vs LAD3 − 9L
Jun 29vs LAD4 − 9L
Jun 28at LAA1 − 4L
Jun 27at LAA2 − 5L
Jun 26at LAA9 − 3W
Jun 25at SF9 − 6W
Jun 24at SF1 − 2L
Jun 23at SF1 − 3L
Jun 21vs LAA7 − 9L
Jun 20vs LAA0 − 7L