bayesRatings

Dodgers at Athletics

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 30 · 8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final LAD 9 – ATH 3
← MLB / Jun 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD2030013009140
ATH100000200371
Team box
LAD·ATH
14
hits
7
2
home runs
1
5
walks
1
3
strikeouts
15
140
pitches thrown
154
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Tommy EdmanLAD4-5214
Colby ThomasATH2-3112
Miguel RojasLAD1-3112
Mookie BettsLAD3-5101
Jonah HeimATH1-4001
Freddie FreemanLAD2-4200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Justin Wrobleski (W)LAD7.073011
Jeffrey Springs (L)ATH5.18642

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +8
LAD +8
123456789
largest lead: ATH 0 · LAD 8lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 61%, ATH 39% · Updated Jun 30

Expected margin
LAD by 2.1
Expected score
LAD 6.2 – 4.2 ATH
Expected total
10.4
DodgersThe matchupAthletics
−157Our fair odds+157
6.2Expected runs4.2
+0.40Power rating−0.12
5.3Runs / game4.6
3.5Allowed / game5.3
8.9Hits / game8.5
1.36Home runs / game1.27
4.0Walks drawn / game3.8
55−30Season record40−45
7−3Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · ATH chance
Our model fair61.1%38.9%
Kalshi64.6%39.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−15761%−18364.6%———
ATHAthletics+15739%+15239.6%———
SpreadLAD by 2.1
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−2.1our margin————
ATHAthletics+2.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.4
Over10.4our total————
Under10.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 2.1 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 18 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 17 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 16 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 10%Athletics by 1 run: 14%Athletics by 2 runs: 7%Athletics by 3 runs: 5%Athletics by 4 runs: 3%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 7 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 16 runs: <1%Athletics by 17 runs: <1%Athletics by 18 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byATH wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more54%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more44%
Athletics wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.561%
Total over 10.544%
Total over 12.530%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADJustin Wrobleski SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 3.06 ERA, 9 Kstarted
ATHJeffrey Springs SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·ATH
Jun 29 at ATH
last game
Jun 29 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
8th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 85+ games
LAD·ATH
+0.40
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
5.3
runs / game
4.6
3.5
runs allowed / game
5.3
55−30
season record
40−45
26−14
home record
18−24
29−16
away record
22−21
W3
streak
L3
7−3
last 10
3−7
8.9
hits / game
8.5
1.36
home runs / game
1.27
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.8
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.31
errors / game
0.39

Rating Trend

LAD · ATH · 97 days
Los Angeles DodgersAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 2−8
Jun 29at ATHLAD 9 − 4
May 15, 2025at LADLAD 19 − 2
May 14, 2025at LADLAD 9 − 3
May 13, 2025at LADATH 11 − 1
Aug 4, 2024at ATHLAD 3 − 2
Aug 3, 2024at ATHLAD 10 − 0
Aug 2, 2024at ATHATH 6 − 5
Aug 3, 2023at LADLAD 8 − 2
Aug 2, 2023at LADLAD 10 − 1
Aug 1, 2023at LADLAD 7 − 3

LAD · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Jun 29at ATH9 − 4W
Jun 28at SD4 − 2W
Jun 27at SD15 − 3W
Jun 26at SD1 − 7L
Jun 24at MIN4 − 3W
Jun 23at MIN12 − 3W
Jun 22at MIN2 − 1W
Jun 21vs BAL1 − 12L
Jun 20vs BAL2 − 3L
Jun 19vs BAL6 − 5W

ATH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Jun 29vs LAD4 − 9L
Jun 28at LAA1 − 4L
Jun 27at LAA2 − 5L
Jun 26at LAA9 − 3W
Jun 25at SF9 − 6W
Jun 24at SF1 − 2L
Jun 23at SF1 − 3L
Jun 21vs LAA7 − 9L
Jun 20vs LAA0 − 7L
Jun 19vs LAA12 − 11W