bayesRatings

Marlins at Rockies

MLB · Thursday, Jul 2 · 2:10 PM CT · Coors Field · Final MIA 4 – COL 14
← MLB / Jul 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA201100000460
COL1022070214141
Team box
MIA·COL
6
hits
14
0
home runs
2
6
walks
5
3
strikeouts
4
145
pitches thrown
148
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake McCarthyCOL2-4314
Mickey MoniakCOL3-5312
Troy JohnstonCOL2-4102
Willi CastroCOL1-3102
Brett SullivanCOL2-5101
TJ RumfieldCOL2-4201
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Javier SanojaMIA1.02210
John King (L)MIA2.01211
Michael LorenzenCOL4.13261
Brennan Bernardino (W)COL1.11000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +10
MIA +10
123456789
largest lead: COL 10 · MIA 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 61%, COL 39% · Updated Jul 2

Expected margin
MIA by 1.7
Expected score
MIA 6.4 – 4.8 COL
Expected total
11.2
MarlinsThe matchupRockies
−156Our fair odds+156
6.4Expected runs4.8
+0.01Power rating−0.51
4.4Runs / game4.6
4.2Allowed / game5.8
8.3Hits / game8.6
0.91Home runs / game1.11
3.3Walks drawn / game3.1
46−41Season record34−53
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · COL chance
Our model fair61.0%39.0%
Kalshi58.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins−15661%−14258.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+15639%+11446.7%———
SpreadMIA by 1.7
MIAMiami Marlins−1.7our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+1.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.2
Over11.2our total————
Under11.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Marlins by 1.7 expected
Miami Marlins by 18 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 17 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 16 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 15 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 14 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 8%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 10%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 12%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 18 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byCOL wins by →
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more51%
Miami Marlins wins by 3 or more41%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.557%
Total over 11.542%
Total over 13.529%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIAJavier Sanoja 3B · no recent starts on recordstarted
COLMichael Lorenzen SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.94 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·COL
Jul 1 at COL
last game
Jul 1 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 87+ games
MIA·COL
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.51
4.4
runs / game
4.6
4.2
runs allowed / game
5.8
46−41
season record
34−53
28−17
home record
19−24
18−24
away record
15−29
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
4−6
8.3
hits / game
8.6
0.91
home runs / game
1.11
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.0
0.61
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

MIA · COL · 99 days
Miami MarlinsColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 2−8
Jul 1at COLCOL 6 − 3
Jun 30at COLMIA 14 − 3
Jun 29at COLMIA 10 − 7
Mar 29at MIAMIA 4 − 3
Mar 28at MIAMIA 4 − 3
Mar 27at MIAMIA 2 − 1
Sep 18, 2025at COLMIA 9 − 7
Sep 17, 2025at COLMIA 8 − 4
Sep 16, 2025at COLMIA 6 − 5
Jun 4, 2025at MIACOL 3 − 2

MIA · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jul 1at COL3 − 6L
Jun 30at COL14 − 3W
Jun 29at COL10 − 7W
Jun 28at STL1 − 2L
Jun 27at STL5 − 1W
Jun 26at STL4 − 0W
Jun 24vs TEX4 − 2W
Jun 23vs TEX6 − 4W
Jun 22vs TEX3 − 4L
Jun 21vs SF2 − 1W

COL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jul 1vs MIA6 − 3W
Jun 30vs MIA3 − 14L
Jun 29vs MIA7 − 10L
Jun 28at MIN2 − 3L
Jun 27at MIN8 − 5W
Jun 26at MIN8 − 9L
Jun 24vs BOS8 − 6W
Jun 23vs BOS2 − 5L
Jun 22vs BOS3 − 2W
Jun 21vs PIT6 − 8L