bayesRatings

Guardians at Marlins

MLB · Saturday, Jul 11 · 3:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final CLE 4 – MIA 1
← MLB / Jul 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE0002000204110
MIA000000100171
Team box
CLE·MIA
11
hits
7
0
home runs
0
2
walks
4
11
strikeouts
4
126
pitches thrown
155
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Gabriel AriasCLE3-4100
Steven KwanCLE1-4002
Patrick BaileyCLE1-4002
Liam HicksMIA2-3001
Brayan RocchioCLE2-5000
Petey HalpinCLE1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tanner Bibee (W)CLE6.25143
Colin Holderman (S)CLE1.00000
Eury Perez (L)MIA6.08226

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +3
CLE +3
123456789
largest lead: MIA 0 · CLE 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 48%, MIA 52% · Updated Jul 11

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIA 4.4 – 4.1 CLE
Expected total
8.5
GuardiansThe matchupMarlins
+107Our fair odds−107
4.1Expected runs4.4
+0.02Power rating+0.03
4.0Runs / game4.6
4.0Allowed / game4.3
7.5Hits / game8.4
0.96Home runs / game1.02
3.7Walks drawn / game3.5
49−46Season record52−43
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · MIA chance
Our model fair48.3%51.7%
Kalshi41.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians+10748%+14041.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins−10752%−16862.7%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland Guardians+0.3our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 15%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 14%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 10%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 8%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more38%
Miami Marlins wins by 3 or more28%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLETanner Bibee SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 4.24 ERA, 6 Kstarted
MIAEury Perez SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 1.06 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·MIA
Jul 10 at MIA
last game
Jul 10 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 95+ games
CLE·MIA
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
4.0
runs / game
4.6
4.0
runs allowed / game
4.3
49−46
season record
52−43
24−22
home record
31−18
25−24
away record
21−25
W2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
7−3
7.5
hits / game
8.4
0.96
home runs / game
1.02
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.49
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

CLE · MIA · 108 days
Cleveland GuardiansMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 4−6
Jul 10at MIACLE 3 − 2
Aug 14, 2025at CLECLE 9 − 4
Aug 13, 2025at CLEMIA 13 − 4
Aug 12, 2025at CLECLE 4 − 3
Jun 9, 2024at MIACLE 6 − 3
Jun 8, 2024at MIACLE 8 − 0
Jun 7, 2024at MIAMIA 3 − 2
Apr 23, 2023at CLECLE 7 − 4
Apr 22, 2023at CLEMIA 3 − 2
Apr 22, 2023at CLEMIA 6 − 1

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jul 10at MIA3 − 2W
Jul 9at MIN5 − 2W
Jul 8at MIN5 − 6L
Jul 7at MIN1 − 3L
Jul 5vs CHW6 − 7L
Jul 4vs CHW1 − 3L
Jul 3vs CHW4 − 3W
Jul 2vs CHW6 − 5W
Jul 1vs TEX9 − 4W
Jun 30vs TEX2 − 4L

MIA · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jul 10vs CLE2 − 3L
Jul 9vs SEA8 − 4W
Jul 8vs SEA2 − 0W
Jul 7vs SEA6 − 5W
Jul 5at ATH9 − 8W
Jul 4at ATH7 − 2W
Jul 3at ATH12 − 5W
Jul 2at COL4 − 14L
Jul 1at COL3 − 6L
Jun 30at COL14 − 3W