bayesRatings

Guardians at Twins

MLB · Tuesday, Jul 7 · 6:40 PM CT · Target Field · Final CLE 1 – MIN 3
← MLB / Jul 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE010000000131
MIN020000103100
Team box
CLE·MIN
3
hits
10
1
home runs
0
1
walks
3
13
strikeouts
8
135
pitches thrown
134
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Rhys HoskinsCLE1-3111
Kody ClemensMIN2-4101
Chase DeLauterCLE2-3000
Josh BellMIN2-3100
Austin MartinMIN1-3001
Brooks LeeMIN1-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Joey Cantillo (L)CLE5.06037
Taj Bradley (W)MIN7.031010
Yoendrys Gomez (S)MIN0.10001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +3
CLE +3
123456789
largest lead: MIN 2 · CLE 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 51%, MIN 49% · Updated Jul 7

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 4.8 – 4.7 MIN
Expected total
9.4
GuardiansThe matchupTwins
−104Our fair odds+104
4.8Expected runs4.7
+0.02Power rating−0.08
4.0Runs / game4.9
4.1Allowed / game5.1
7.6Hits / game8.4
0.92Home runs / game1.29
3.7Walks drawn / game3.3
47−44Season record44−47
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · MIN chance
Our model fair51.1%48.9%
Kalshi52.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians−10451%−11252.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins+10449%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland Guardians−0.1our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 14%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 13%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byMIN wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more37%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more28%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEJoey Cantillo SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 1.89 ERA, 22 Kstarted
MINTaj Bradley SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.65 ERA, 22 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·MIN
Jul 5 vs CHW
last game
Jul 5 at NYY
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 91+ games
CLE·MIN
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.0
runs / game
4.9
4.1
runs allowed / game
5.1
47−44
season record
44−47
24−22
home record
22−23
23−22
away record
22−24
L2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
6−4
7.6
hits / game
8.4
0.92
home runs / game
1.29
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.51
errors / game
0.55

Rating Trend

CLE · MIN · 104 days
Cleveland GuardiansMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 4−6
May 10at CLEMIN 5 − 4
May 9at CLEMIN 2 − 1
May 8at CLECLE 6 − 4
Sep 21, 2025at MINMIN 6 − 2
Sep 20, 2025at MINCLE 8 − 0
Sep 20, 2025at MINCLE 6 − 0
Sep 19, 2025at MINCLE 6 − 2
Aug 3, 2025at CLEMIN 5 − 4
Aug 2, 2025at CLECLE 5 − 4
Aug 1, 2025at CLECLE 3 − 2

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jul 5vs CHW6 − 7L
Jul 4vs CHW1 − 3L
Jul 3vs CHW4 − 3W
Jul 2vs CHW6 − 5W
Jul 1vs TEX9 − 4W
Jun 30vs TEX2 − 4L
Jun 29vs TEX3 − 6L
Jun 28vs SEA6 − 5W
Jun 27vs SEA4 − 3W
Jun 26vs SEA1 − 3L

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jul 5at NYY6 − 1W
Jul 4at NYY11 − 4W
Jul 3at NYY2 − 5L
Jul 1at HOU8 − 3W
Jun 30at HOU4 − 6L
Jun 29at HOU5 − 4W
Jun 28vs COL3 − 2W
Jun 27vs COL5 − 8L
Jun 26vs COL9 − 8W
Jun 24vs LAD3 − 4L