bayesRatings

Twins at Yankees

MLB · Sunday, Jul 5 · 12:35 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final MIN 6 – NYY 1
← MLB / Jul 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN1001220006130
NYY000000001150
Team box
MIN·NYY
13
hits
5
0
home runs
0
4
walks
1
10
strikeouts
11
137
pitches thrown
174
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Royce LewisMIN2-4102
Brooks LeeMIN3-5101
Austin MartinMIN2-3201
Josh BellMIN1-4001
Ryan KreidlerMIN2-4100
Byron BuxtonMIN1-1000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Joe Ryan (W)MIN7.03019
Ryan Weathers (L)NYY4.06426

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +6
MIN +6
123456789
largest lead: NYY 0 · MIN 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 42%, NYY 58% · Updated Jul 5

Expected margin
NYY by 0.9
Expected score
NYY 5.2 – 4.2 MIN
Expected total
9.4
TwinsThe matchupYankees
+137Our fair odds−137
4.2Expected runs5.2
−0.10Power rating+0.16
4.9Runs / game4.8
5.2Allowed / game3.9
8.3Hits / game7.8
1.30Home runs / game1.45
3.3Walks drawn / game4.0
43−47Season record49−39
5−5Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · NYY chance
Our model fair42.2%57.8%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+13742%+11446.7%———
NYYNew York Yankees−13758%−13757.7%———
SpreadNYY by 0.9
MINMinnesota Twins+0.9our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.9 expected
Minnesota Twins by 15 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 12%New York Yankees by 1 run: 14%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 15 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more44%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more34%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINJoe Ryan SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 2.40 ERA, 21 Kstarted
NYYRyan Weathers SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 2.57 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·NYY
Jul 4 at NYY
last game
Jul 4 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 88+ games
MIN·NYY
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.16
4.9
runs / game
4.8
5.2
runs allowed / game
3.9
43−47
season record
49−39
22−23
home record
23−19
21−24
away record
26−20
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
2−8
8.3
hits / game
7.8
1.30
home runs / game
1.45
3.3
walks drawn / game
4.0
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.9
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.56
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

MIN · NYY · 102 days
Minnesota TwinsNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 7−3
Jul 4at NYYMIN 11 − 4
Jul 3at NYYNYY 5 − 2
Sep 17, 2025at MINNYY 10 − 5
Sep 16, 2025at MINNYY 10 − 9
Sep 15, 2025at MINMIN 7 − 0
Aug 13, 2025at NYYMIN 4 − 1
Aug 12, 2025at NYYNYY 9 − 1
Aug 11, 2025at NYYNYY 6 − 2
Jun 6, 2024at NYYNYY 8 − 5
Jun 5, 2024at NYYNYY 9 − 5

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jul 4at NYY11 − 4W
Jul 3at NYY2 − 5L
Jul 1at HOU8 − 3W
Jun 30at HOU4 − 6L
Jun 29at HOU5 − 4W
Jun 28vs COL3 − 2W
Jun 27vs COL5 − 8L
Jun 26vs COL9 − 8W
Jun 24vs LAD3 − 4L
Jun 23vs LAD3 − 12L

NYY · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Jul 4vs MIN4 − 11L
Jul 3vs MIN5 − 2W
Jul 1vs DET2 − 6L
Jun 30vs DET3 − 9L
Jun 29vs DET3 − 7L
Jun 28at BOS4 − 5L
Jun 27at BOS1 − 4L
Jun 26at BOS1 − 6L
Jun 25at BOS3 − 6L
Jun 24at DET4 − 2W