bayesRatings

Tigers at Yankees

MLB · Monday, Jun 29 · 6:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final DET 7 – NYY 3
← MLB / Jun 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET1402000007110
NYY000000030332
Team box
DET·NYY
11
hits
3
0
home runs
1
2
walks
1
9
strikeouts
13
119
pitches thrown
150
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Amed RosarioNYY1-1113
Hao-Yu LeeDET2-5002
Kevin McGonigleDET2-4102
Zach McKinstryDET2-5100
Matt VierlingDET1-5201
Dillon DinglerDET1-4201
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Casey Mize (W)DET7.010010
Ryan Weathers (L)NYY1.27213

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +7
DET +7
123456789
largest lead: NYY 0 · DET 7lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 42%, NYY 58% · Updated Jun 29

Expected margin
NYY by 0.9
Expected score
NYY 4.8 – 3.9 DET
Expected total
8.7
TigersThe matchupYankees
+139Our fair odds−139
3.9Expected runs4.8
−0.04Power rating+0.22
4.1Runs / game4.9
4.1Allowed / game3.7
7.8Hits / game7.9
1.13Home runs / game1.46
3.7Walks drawn / game4.0
35−49Season record48−35
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · NYY chance
Our model fair41.9%58.1%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers+13942%+11945.7%———
NYYNew York Yankees−13958%−14258.7%———
SpreadNYY by 0.9
DETDetroit Tigers+0.9our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.9 expected
Detroit Tigers by 14 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 9%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 13%New York Yankees by 1 run: 15%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%
← DET wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more43%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more33%
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETCasey Mize SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 4.40 ERA, 15 Kstarted
NYYRyan Weathers SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 4.32 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·NYY
Jun 28 vs HOU
last game
Jun 28 at BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 83+ games
DET·NYY
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.22
4.1
runs / game
4.9
4.1
runs allowed / game
3.7
35−49
season record
48−35
23−21
home record
22−15
12−28
away record
26−20
L2
streak
L4
5−5
last 10
3−7
7.8
hits / game
7.9
1.13
home runs / game
1.46
3.7
walks drawn / game
4.0
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.45
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

DET · NYY · 96 days
Detroit TigersNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 4−6
Jun 24at DETNYY 4 − 2
Jun 23at DETNYY 4 − 3
Jun 22at DETDET 5 − 3
Sep 11, 2025at NYYNYY 9 − 3
Sep 10, 2025at NYYDET 11 − 1
Sep 9, 2025at NYYDET 12 − 2
Apr 9, 2025at DETNYY 4 − 3
Apr 8, 2025at DETDET 5 − 0
Apr 7, 2025at DETDET 6 − 2
Aug 18, 2024at DETDET 3 − 2

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jun 28vs HOU5 − 7L
Jun 27vs HOU6 − 8L
Jun 26vs HOU8 − 0W
Jun 25vs HOU1 − 2L
Jun 24vs NYY2 − 4L
Jun 23vs NYY3 − 4L
Jun 22vs NYY5 − 3W
Jun 21vs CHW5 − 4W
Jun 20vs CHW4 − 1W
Jun 19vs CHW4 − 3W

NYY · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Jun 28at BOS4 − 5L
Jun 27at BOS1 − 4L
Jun 26at BOS1 − 6L
Jun 25at BOS3 − 6L
Jun 24at DET4 − 2W
Jun 23at DET4 − 3W
Jun 22at DET3 − 5L
Jun 21vs CIN1 − 4L
Jun 20vs CIN2 − 10L
Jun 19vs CIN5 − 0W