bayesRatings

Yankees at Tigers

MLB · Monday, Jun 22 · 5:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final NYY 3 – DET 5
← MLB / Jun 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY010000200372
DET00311000590
Team box
NYY·DET
7
hits
9
1
home runs
1
2
walks
3
12
strikeouts
7
138
pitches thrown
131
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Amed RosarioNYY1-5112
Kevin McGonigleDET2-5002
Riley GreeneDET1-2211
Spencer TorkelsonDET2-3001
Colt KeithDET1-4001
Paul GoldschmidtNYY2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Gerrit Cole (L)NYY4.19515
Framber Valdez (W)DET6.04128
Will Vest (S)DET1.10002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +4
NYY +4
123456789
largest lead: DET 4 · NYY 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 56%, DET 44% · Updated Jun 22

Expected margin
NYY by 1.0
Expected score
NYY 4.7 – 3.7 DET
Expected total
8.4
YankeesThe matchupTigers
−126Our fair odds+126
4.7Expected runs3.7
+0.28Power rating−0.03
5.1Runs / game4.1
3.6Allowed / game4.1
8.2Hits / game7.8
1.50Home runs / game1.12
4.2Walks drawn / game3.7
46−30Season record33−44
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · DET chance
Our model fair55.8%44.2%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−12656%−12655.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers+12644%+10548.7%———
SpreadNYY by 1.0
NYYNew York Yankees−1our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.0 expected
New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 1 run: 11%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 17%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 9%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 14 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byDET wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more45%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more34%
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYGerrit Cole SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 4.70 ERA, 12 Kstarted
DETFramber Valdez SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.81 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·DET
Jun 21 vs CIN
last game
Jun 21 vs CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 76+ games
NYY·DET
+0.28
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
5.1
runs / game
4.1
3.6
runs allowed / game
4.1
46−30
season record
33−44
22−15
home record
21−16
24−15
away record
12−28
L2
streak
W3
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.2
hits / game
7.8
1.50
home runs / game
1.12
4.2
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.49
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

NYY · DET · 89 days
New York YankeesDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 6−4
Sep 11, 2025at NYYNYY 9 − 3
Sep 10, 2025at NYYDET 11 − 1
Sep 9, 2025at NYYDET 12 − 2
Apr 9, 2025at DETNYY 4 − 3
Apr 8, 2025at DETDET 5 − 0
Apr 7, 2025at DETDET 6 − 2
Aug 18, 2024at DETDET 3 − 2
Aug 17, 2024at DETDET 4 − 0
Aug 16, 2024at DETNYY 3 − 0
May 5, 2024at NYYNYY 5 − 2

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Jun 21vs CIN1 − 4L
Jun 20vs CIN2 − 10L
Jun 19vs CIN5 − 0W
Jun 18vs CHW1 − 5L
Jun 17vs CHW10 − 5W
Jun 16vs CHW12 − 2W
Jun 14at TOR8 − 3W
Jun 13at TOR3 − 1W
Jun 12at TOR5 − 8L
Jun 10at CLE8 − 4W

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Jun 21vs CHW5 − 4W
Jun 20vs CHW4 − 1W
Jun 19vs CHW4 − 3W
Jun 17at HOU2 − 4L
Jun 16at HOU2 − 4L
Jun 15at HOU9 − 3W
Jun 13at CLE1 − 3L
Jun 12at CLE2 − 3L
Jun 11vs MIN11 − 0W
Jun 10vs MIN4 − 6L