bayesRatings

Reds at Yankees

MLB · Saturday, Jun 20 · 12:35 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final CIN 10 – NYY 2
← MLB / Jun 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN00204004010153
NYY100000010281
Team box
CIN·NYY
15
hits
8
1
home runs
1
3
walks
3
10
strikeouts
8
156
pitches thrown
153
3
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Sal StewartCIN2-4106
Spencer SteerCIN1-5113
Edwin ArroyoCIN4-5200
Paul GoldschmidtNYY1-5111
Dane MyersCIN1-1001
Nathaniel LoweCIN2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Andrew Abbott (W)CIN5.05136
Will Warren (L)NYY5.28228

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +9
CIN +9
123456789
largest lead: NYY 1 · CIN 9lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 38%, NYY 62% · Updated Jun 20

Expected margin
NYY by 1.5
Expected score
NYY 5.2 – 3.8 CIN
Expected total
9.0
RedsThe matchupYankees
+162Our fair odds−162
3.8Expected runs5.2
−0.07Power rating+0.33
4.2Runs / game5.2
5.0Allowed / game3.6
7.6Hits / game8.2
1.27Home runs / game1.51
3.9Walks drawn / game4.3
35−39Season record46−28
4−6Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · NYY chance
Our model fair38.2%61.8%
Kalshi36.6%67.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+16238%+17336.6%———
NYYNew York Yankees−16262%−20867.6%———
SpreadNYY by 1.5
CINCincinnati Reds+1.5our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.5 expected
Cincinnati Reds by 15 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 14%New York Yankees by 1 run: 13%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 15 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more49%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more38%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINAndrew Abbott SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.71 ERA, 16 Kstarted
NYYWill Warren SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 3.14 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·NYY
Jun 19 at NYY
last game
Jun 19 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 74+ games
CIN·NYY
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.33
4.2
runs / game
5.2
5.0
runs allowed / game
3.6
35−39
season record
46−28
19−19
home record
22−13
16−20
away record
24−15
L2
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
8−2
7.6
hits / game
8.2
1.27
home runs / game
1.51
3.9
walks drawn / game
4.3
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.50
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

CIN · NYY · 87 days
Cincinnati RedsNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 5−5
Jun 19at NYYNYY 5 − 0
Jun 25, 2025at CINNYY 7 − 1
Jun 24, 2025at CINCIN 5 − 4
Jun 23, 2025at CINCIN 6 − 1
Jul 4, 2024at NYYCIN 8 − 4
Jul 3, 2024at NYYCIN 3 − 2
Jul 2, 2024at NYYCIN 5 − 4
May 21, 2023at CINNYY 4 − 1
May 20, 2023at CINNYY 7 − 4
May 19, 2023at CINNYY 6 − 2

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jun 19at NYY0 − 5L
Jun 17vs NYM1 − 9L
Jun 16vs NYM5 − 3W
Jun 15vs NYM12 − 0W
Jun 14vs ARI3 − 5L
Jun 13vs ARI2 − 1W
Jun 12vs ARI2 − 5L
Jun 10at SD4 − 5L
Jun 9at SD5 − 3W
Jun 8at SD2 − 6L

NYY · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Jun 19vs CIN5 − 0W
Jun 18vs CHW1 − 5L
Jun 17vs CHW10 − 5W
Jun 16vs CHW12 − 2W
Jun 14at TOR8 − 3W
Jun 13at TOR3 − 1W
Jun 12at TOR5 − 8L
Jun 10at CLE8 − 4W
Jun 9at CLE3 − 2W
Jun 8at CLE7 − 5W