bayesRatings

Reds at Yankees

MLB · Sunday, Jun 21 · 12:35 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final CIN 4 – NYY 1
← MLB / Jun 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN000300001470
NYY001000000173
Team box
CIN·NYY
7
hits
7
1
home runs
1
3
walks
4
6
strikeouts
10
146
pitches thrown
150
0
errors
3
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Tyler StephensonCIN1-4113
Ben RiceNYY2-3111
Noelvi MarteCIN2-4101
Blake DunnCIN2-4000
Spencer SteerCIN1-4100
Sal StewartCIN1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Chase Burns (W)CIN5.05137
Tony Santillan (S)CIN2.00001
Elmer Rodriguez (L)NYY4.04324

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +3
CIN +3
123456789
largest lead: NYY 1 · CIN 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 40%, NYY 60% · Updated Jun 21

Expected margin
NYY by 1.4
Expected score
NYY 5.2 – 3.8 CIN
Expected total
9.1
RedsThe matchupYankees
+153Our fair odds−153
3.8Expected runs5.2
−0.06Power rating+0.30
4.3Runs / game5.2
4.9Allowed / game3.6
7.7Hits / game8.2
1.27Home runs / game1.51
3.8Walks drawn / game4.2
36−39Season record46−29
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · NYY chance
Our model fair39.6%60.4%
Kalshi51.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+15340%−10751.8%———
NYYNew York Yankees−15360%−11653.7%———
SpreadNYY by 1.4
CINCincinnati Reds+1.4our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.4 expected
Cincinnati Reds by 15 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 14%New York Yankees by 1 run: 12%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 15 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more48%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more38%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINChase Burns SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 2.20 ERA, 23 Kstarted
NYYElmer Rodriguez SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 4.15 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·NYY
Jun 20 at NYY
last game
Jun 20 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 75+ games
CIN·NYY
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.30
4.3
runs / game
5.2
4.9
runs allowed / game
3.6
36−39
season record
46−29
19−19
home record
22−14
17−20
away record
24−15
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
7−3
7.7
hits / game
8.2
1.27
home runs / game
1.51
3.8
walks drawn / game
4.2
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.53
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

CIN · NYY · 88 days
Cincinnati RedsNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 4−6
Jun 20at NYYCIN 10 − 2
Jun 19at NYYNYY 5 − 0
Jun 25, 2025at CINNYY 7 − 1
Jun 24, 2025at CINCIN 5 − 4
Jun 23, 2025at CINCIN 6 − 1
Jul 4, 2024at NYYCIN 8 − 4
Jul 3, 2024at NYYCIN 3 − 2
Jul 2, 2024at NYYCIN 5 − 4
May 21, 2023at CINNYY 4 − 1
May 20, 2023at CINNYY 7 − 4

CIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 20at NYY10 − 2W
Jun 19at NYY0 − 5L
Jun 17vs NYM1 − 9L
Jun 16vs NYM5 − 3W
Jun 15vs NYM12 − 0W
Jun 14vs ARI3 − 5L
Jun 13vs ARI2 − 1W
Jun 12vs ARI2 − 5L
Jun 10at SD4 − 5L
Jun 9at SD5 − 3W

NYY · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jun 20vs CIN2 − 10L
Jun 19vs CIN5 − 0W
Jun 18vs CHW1 − 5L
Jun 17vs CHW10 − 5W
Jun 16vs CHW12 − 2W
Jun 14at TOR8 − 3W
Jun 13at TOR3 − 1W
Jun 12at TOR5 − 8L
Jun 10at CLE8 − 4W
Jun 9at CLE3 − 2W