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Yankees at Red Sox

MLB · Thursday, Jun 25 · 6:10 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final NYY 3 – BOS 6
← MLB / Jun 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY100100100384
BOS00004002670
Team box
NYY·BOS
8
hits
7
1
home runs
1
3
walks
3
10
strikeouts
10
137
pitches thrown
155
4
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Caleb DurbinBOS2-3212
Jose CaballeroNYY2-4111
Paul GoldschmidtNYY2-4101
Anthony SeiglerBOS2-4000
Jarren DuranBOS1-3001
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cam Schlittler (L)NYY5.05029
Connelly Early (W)BOS6.05219
Aroldis Chapman (S)BOS1.02010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +3
NYY +3
123456789
largest lead: BOS 3 · NYY 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 56%, BOS 44% · Updated Jun 25

Expected margin
NYY by 0.9
Expected score
NYY 4.5 – 3.6 BOS
Expected total
8.2
YankeesThe matchupRed Sox
−125Our fair odds+125
4.5Expected runs3.6
+0.28Power rating−0.01
5.1Runs / game3.9
3.6Allowed / game4.0
8.1Hits / game8.2
1.51Home runs / game0.86
4.1Walks drawn / game2.9
48−31Season record32−46
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · BOS chance
Our model fair55.5%44.5%
Kalshi58.7%45.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−12556%−14258.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox+12544%+11945.7%———
SpreadNYY by 0.9
NYYNew York Yankees−0.9our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox+0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.9 expected
New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 1 run: 12%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 17%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 9%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byBOS wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more44%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more33%
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYCam Schlittler SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 0.96 ERA, 25 Kstarted
BOSConnelly Early SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 5.28 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·BOS
Jun 24 at DET
last game
Jun 24 at COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 78+ games
NYY·BOS
+0.28
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
5.1
runs / game
3.9
3.6
runs allowed / game
4.0
48−31
season record
32−46
22−15
home record
12−25
26−16
away record
20−21
W2
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
3−7
8.1
hits / game
8.2
1.51
home runs / game
0.86
4.1
walks drawn / game
2.9
8.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.51
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

NYY · BOS · 92 days
New York YankeesBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 3−7
Jun 7at NYYNYY 6 − 1
Jun 5at NYYBOS 5 − 3
Apr 23at BOSNYY 4 − 2
Apr 22at BOSNYY 4 − 1
Apr 21at BOSNYY 4 − 0
Oct 2, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 0post
Oct 1, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 3post
Sep 30, 2025at NYYBOS 3 − 1post
Sep 14, 2025at BOSBOS 6 − 4
Sep 13, 2025at BOSNYY 5 − 3

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jun 24at DET4 − 2W
Jun 23at DET4 − 3W
Jun 22at DET3 − 5L
Jun 21vs CIN1 − 4L
Jun 20vs CIN2 − 10L
Jun 19vs CIN5 − 0W
Jun 18vs CHW1 − 5L
Jun 17vs CHW10 − 5W
Jun 16vs CHW12 − 2W
Jun 14at TOR8 − 3W

BOS · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Jun 24at COL6 − 8L
Jun 23at COL5 − 2W
Jun 22at COL2 − 3L
Jun 21at SEA1 − 3L
Jun 20at SEA5 − 1W
Jun 19at SEA6 − 2W
Jun 18vs TOR3 − 4L
Jun 17vs TOR0 − 3L
Jun 16vs TOR1 − 6L
Jun 14vs TEX4 − 6L