bayesRatings

Yankees at Tigers

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 24 · 5:40 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final NYY 4 – DET 2
← MLB / Jun 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY101002000461
DET010100000280
Team box
NYY·DET
6
hits
8
3
home runs
0
0
walks
3
13
strikeouts
11
146
pitches thrown
124
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Paul GoldschmidtNYY2-4222
Jasson DominguezNYY1-4112
Zach McKinstryDET1-4001
Hao-Yu LeeDET2-3000
Kevin McGonigleDET2-5000
Ben RiceNYY2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ryan Weathers (W)NYY6.06126
David Bednar (S)NYY1.01001
Tarik Skubal (L)DET6.04409

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +3
NYY +3
123456789
largest lead: DET 0 · NYY 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 56%, DET 44% · Updated Jun 24

Expected margin
NYY by 1.0
Expected score
NYY 4.7 – 3.7 DET
Expected total
8.3
YankeesThe matchupTigers
−126Our fair odds+126
4.7Expected runs3.7
+0.27Power rating−0.02
5.1Runs / game4.1
3.7Allowed / game4.1
8.2Hits / game7.8
1.49Home runs / game1.10
4.2Walks drawn / game3.6
47−31Season record34−45
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · DET chance
Our model fair55.7%44.3%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−12656%+10947.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers+12644%−13156.7%———
SpreadNYY by 1.0
NYYNew York Yankees−1our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.0 expected
New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 1 run: 12%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 17%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 9%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 14 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byDET wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more45%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more34%
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYRyan Weathers SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 6.48 ERA, 14 Kstarted
DETTarik Skubal SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.63 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·DET
Jun 23 at DET
last game
Jun 23 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 78+ games
NYY·DET
+0.27
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
5.1
runs / game
4.1
3.7
runs allowed / game
4.1
47−31
season record
34−45
22−15
home record
22−17
25−16
away record
12−28
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.2
hits / game
7.8
1.49
home runs / game
1.10
4.2
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.50
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

NYY · DET · 91 days
New York YankeesDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 7−3
Jun 23at DETNYY 4 − 3
Jun 22at DETDET 5 − 3
Sep 11, 2025at NYYNYY 9 − 3
Sep 10, 2025at NYYDET 11 − 1
Sep 9, 2025at NYYDET 12 − 2
Apr 9, 2025at DETNYY 4 − 3
Apr 8, 2025at DETDET 5 − 0
Apr 7, 2025at DETDET 6 − 2
Aug 18, 2024at DETDET 3 − 2
Aug 17, 2024at DETDET 4 − 0

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jun 23at DET4 − 3W
Jun 22at DET3 − 5L
Jun 21vs CIN1 − 4L
Jun 20vs CIN2 − 10L
Jun 19vs CIN5 − 0W
Jun 18vs CHW1 − 5L
Jun 17vs CHW10 − 5W
Jun 16vs CHW12 − 2W
Jun 14at TOR8 − 3W
Jun 13at TOR3 − 1W

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jun 23vs NYY3 − 4L
Jun 22vs NYY5 − 3W
Jun 21vs CHW5 − 4W
Jun 20vs CHW4 − 1W
Jun 19vs CHW4 − 3W
Jun 17at HOU2 − 4L
Jun 16at HOU2 − 4L
Jun 15at HOU9 − 3W
Jun 13at CLE1 − 3L
Jun 12at CLE2 − 3L