bayesRatings

Yankees at Red Sox

MLB · Sunday, Jun 28 · 6:20 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final NYY 4 – BOS 5
← MLB / Jun 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
NYY0000000022431
BOS0002000003562
Team box
NYY·BOS
3
hits
6
0
home runs
0
2
walks
4
12
strikeouts
8
153
pitches thrown
145
1
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Caleb DurbinBOS1-4102
Amed RosarioNYY2-3101
Anthony SeiglerBOS1-3001
Jarren DuranBOS1-2001
Willson ContrerasBOS1-4100
Connor WongBOS1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Carlos RodonNYY5.01046
Fernando Cruz (L)NYY0.13200
Sonny GrayBOS7.11019
Justin Slaten (W)BOS1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +3
NYY +3
12345678910
largest lead: BOS 2 · NYY 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 54%, BOS 46% · Updated Jun 28

Expected margin
NYY by 0.7
Expected score
NYY 4.4 – 3.7 BOS
Expected total
8.1
YankeesThe matchupRed Sox
−116Our fair odds+116
4.4Expected runs3.7
+0.23Power rating+0.02
4.9Runs / game4.0
3.7Allowed / game3.9
8.0Hits / game8.2
1.48Home runs / game0.88
4.1Walks drawn / game2.9
48−34Season record35−46
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · BOS chance
Our model fair53.7%46.3%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−11654%−10751.8%———
BOSBoston Red Sox+11646%−11252.7%———
SpreadNYY by 0.7
NYYNew York Yankees−0.7our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.7 expected
New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 1 run: 12%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 18%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 9%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byBOS wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more42%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more31%
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYCarlos Rodon SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 4.96 ERA, 19 Kstarted
BOSSonny Gray SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 22 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·BOS
Jun 27 at BOS
last game
Jun 27 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
7th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 81+ games
NYY·BOS
+0.23
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
4.9
runs / game
4.0
3.7
runs allowed / game
3.9
48−34
season record
35−46
22−15
home record
15−25
26−19
away record
20−21
L3
streak
W3
3−7
last 10
6−4
8.0
hits / game
8.2
1.48
home runs / game
0.88
4.1
walks drawn / game
2.9
8.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.54
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

NYY · BOS · 95 days
New York YankeesBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 4−6
Jun 27at BOSBOS 4 − 1
Jun 26at BOSBOS 6 − 1
Jun 25at BOSBOS 6 − 3
Jun 7at NYYNYY 6 − 1
Jun 5at NYYBOS 5 − 3
Apr 23at BOSNYY 4 − 2
Apr 22at BOSNYY 4 − 1
Apr 21at BOSNYY 4 − 0
Oct 2, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 0post
Oct 1, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 3post

NYY · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Jun 27at BOS1 − 4L
Jun 26at BOS1 − 6L
Jun 25at BOS3 − 6L
Jun 24at DET4 − 2W
Jun 23at DET4 − 3W
Jun 22at DET3 − 5L
Jun 21vs CIN1 − 4L
Jun 20vs CIN2 − 10L
Jun 19vs CIN5 − 0W
Jun 18vs CHW1 − 5L

BOS · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Jun 27vs NYY4 − 1W
Jun 26vs NYY6 − 1W
Jun 25vs NYY6 − 3W
Jun 24at COL6 − 8L
Jun 23at COL5 − 2W
Jun 22at COL2 − 3L
Jun 21at SEA1 − 3L
Jun 20at SEA5 − 1W
Jun 19at SEA6 − 2W
Jun 18vs TOR3 − 4L