bayesRatings

Yankees at Red Sox

MLB · Friday, Jun 26 · 6:10 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final NYY 1 – BOS 6
← MLB / Jun 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY000000010130
BOS12100101690
Team box
NYY·BOS
3
hits
9
0
home runs
1
2
walks
4
7
strikeouts
2
128
pitches thrown
122
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Willson ContrerasBOS2-3112
Connor WongBOS1-2002
Tsung-Che ChengBOS1-3001
Caleb DurbinBOS2-4200
Anthony SeiglerBOS1-4100
Jarren DuranBOS1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Will Warren (L)NYY5.27530
Payton Tolle (W)BOS7.01027

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +5
NYY +5
123456789
largest lead: BOS 5 · NYY 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 55%, BOS 45% · Updated Jun 26

Expected margin
NYY by 0.8
Expected score
NYY 4.5 – 3.7 BOS
Expected total
8.2
YankeesThe matchupRed Sox
−122Our fair odds+122
4.5Expected runs3.7
+0.26Power rating+0.00
5.0Runs / game4.0
3.7Allowed / game4.0
8.1Hits / game8.2
1.50Home runs / game0.86
4.1Walks drawn / game2.9
48−32Season record33−46
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · BOS chance
Our model fair54.9%45.1%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−12255%+10149.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox+12245%−12154.7%———
SpreadNYY by 0.8
NYYNew York Yankees−0.8our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.8 expected
New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 1 run: 12%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 17%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 9%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byBOS wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more43%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more32%
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYWill Warren SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 14 Kstarted
BOSPayton Tolle SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 5.29 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·BOS
Jun 25 at BOS
last game
Jun 25 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 79+ games
NYY·BOS
+0.26
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
5.0
runs / game
4.0
3.7
runs allowed / game
4.0
48−32
season record
33−46
22−15
home record
13−25
26−17
away record
20−21
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.1
hits / game
8.2
1.50
home runs / game
0.86
4.1
walks drawn / game
2.9
8.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.55
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

NYY · BOS · 93 days
New York YankeesBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 4−6
Jun 25at BOSBOS 6 − 3
Jun 7at NYYNYY 6 − 1
Jun 5at NYYBOS 5 − 3
Apr 23at BOSNYY 4 − 2
Apr 22at BOSNYY 4 − 1
Apr 21at BOSNYY 4 − 0
Oct 2, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 0post
Oct 1, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 3post
Sep 30, 2025at NYYBOS 3 − 1post
Sep 14, 2025at BOSBOS 6 − 4

NYY · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jun 25at BOS3 − 6L
Jun 24at DET4 − 2W
Jun 23at DET4 − 3W
Jun 22at DET3 − 5L
Jun 21vs CIN1 − 4L
Jun 20vs CIN2 − 10L
Jun 19vs CIN5 − 0W
Jun 18vs CHW1 − 5L
Jun 17vs CHW10 − 5W
Jun 16vs CHW12 − 2W

BOS · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jun 25vs NYY6 − 3W
Jun 24at COL6 − 8L
Jun 23at COL5 − 2W
Jun 22at COL2 − 3L
Jun 21at SEA1 − 3L
Jun 20at SEA5 − 1W
Jun 19at SEA6 − 2W
Jun 18vs TOR3 − 4L
Jun 17vs TOR0 − 3L
Jun 16vs TOR1 − 6L