bayesRatings

Twins at Astros

MLB · Monday, Jun 29 · 7:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final MIN 5 – HOU 4
← MLB / Jun 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN000202100580
HOU000010003461
Team box
MIN·HOU
8
hits
6
3
home runs
3
4
walks
3
8
strikeouts
8
131
pitches thrown
148
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Cam SmithHOU2-4222
Taylor TrammellHOU2-4112
Josh BellMIN1-4112
Victor CaratiniMIN1-2111
Royce LewisMIN1-4111
Brooks LeeMIN2-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Zebby Matthews (W)MIN7.04117
Yoendrys Gomez (S)MIN0.11100
Peter Lambert (L)HOU5.25434

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +4
MIN +4
123456789
largest lead: HOU 0 · MIN 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 46%, HOU 54% · Updated Jun 29

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
HOU 4.8 – 4.6 MIN
Expected total
9.4
TwinsThe matchupAstros
+118Our fair odds−118
4.6Expected runs4.8
−0.12Power rating−0.02
4.8Runs / game4.5
5.2Allowed / game5.0
8.4Hits / game8.2
1.22Home runs / game1.30
3.3Walks drawn / game3.3
40−45Season record42−44
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · HOU chance
Our model fair45.9%54.1%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+11846%+11945.7%———
HOUHouston Astros−11854%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
MINMinnesota Twins+0.2our margin————
HOUHouston Astros−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 11%Houston Astros by 1 run: 16%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more38%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more28%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINZebby Matthews SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 5.21 ERA, 13 Kstarted
HOUPeter Lambert SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.50 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·HOU
Jun 28 vs COL
last game
Jun 28 at DET
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 85+ games
MIN·HOU
−0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.8
runs / game
4.5
5.2
runs allowed / game
5.0
40−45
season record
42−44
22−23
home record
20−21
18−22
away record
22−23
W1
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
7−3
8.4
hits / game
8.2
1.22
home runs / game
1.30
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.55
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

MIN · HOU · 96 days
Minnesota TwinsHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 6−4
May 20at MINMIN 4 − 1
May 19at MINHOU 2 − 1
May 18at MINMIN 6 − 3
Jun 15, 2025at HOUHOU 2 − 1
Jun 14, 2025at HOUHOU 3 − 2
Jun 13, 2025at HOUHOU 10 − 3
Apr 6, 2025at MINHOU 9 − 7
Apr 5, 2025at MINMIN 6 − 1
Apr 3, 2025at MINHOU 5 − 2
Jul 7, 2024at MINMIN 3 − 2

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 28vs COL3 − 2W
Jun 27vs COL5 − 8L
Jun 26vs COL9 − 8W
Jun 24vs LAD3 − 4L
Jun 23vs LAD3 − 12L
Jun 22vs LAD1 − 2L
Jun 21at ARI4 − 2W
Jun 20at ARI16 − 8W
Jun 19at ARI5 − 9L
Jun 18at TEX9 − 3W

HOU · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Jun 28at DET7 − 5W
Jun 27at DET8 − 6W
Jun 26at DET0 − 8L
Jun 25at DET2 − 1W
Jun 24at TOR3 − 1W
Jun 23at TOR9 − 7W
Jun 22at TOR2 − 4L
Jun 21vs CLE2 − 1W
Jun 20vs CLE1 − 8L
Jun 19vs CLE9 − 3W